BOK Financial Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

BOK Financial Corp

BOKFNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryRegional Banks

Beta (adjusted)0.87

Intrinsic Value $106.31median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $126.40Price as of 30 Sep 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 16% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $7.7B

Enterprise Value $10.8B

Shares Outstanding 59.3M diluted

Next Earnings Date19 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend19 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

BOK Financial Corp (BOKF) is a highly resilient, well-diversified regional financial services holding company with a strong footprint in the American Midwest and Southwest. The bank stands out from regional peers due to its robust fee-generating businesses (fiduciary, asset management, and transaction cards), which consistently contribute 38% to 40%+ of total revenue, reducing its sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations. While BOKF is demonstrating record-breaking loan production (up 11.5% YoY in Q2 2026) and maintaining pristine credit quality (NPAs at 20 bps), its premium valuation (trading near its 52-week high and at 1.7x tangible book value) and ongoing deposit margin pressures limit near-term upside, justifying a Hold rating.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets8 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$146.00

Mean target$152.00

High · most bullish analyst$175.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$146.0015%

A regional economic downturn or prolonged weakness in commodity prices pressures BOKF's concentrated energy loan portfolio (historically ~11-17% of loans), leading to negative credit migration and elevated loan loss provisions. Simultaneously, intense deposit competition forces higher funding costs, compressing net interest margins below 2.80% and causing earnings to miss expectations.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$152.0060%

Matches the consensus mean

BOKF achieves its updated full-year 2026 guidance of over 10% loan growth and net interest income between $1.42 billion and $1.45 billion. Fee income continues to provide steady support, offsetting moderate deposit repricing pressures. The bank maintains its disciplined underwriting standards, keeping credit losses well below peer averages, while the stock trades in line with historical multiples.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$175.0025%

Accelerated commercial and industrial (C&I) loan growth exceeding 12% annually, combined with stable net interest margins and record-high fiduciary/asset management fee income, drives earnings per share well above consensus. Credit quality remains exceptionally strong with near-zero provisions, and the bank aggressively repurchases shares, leading to a valuation rerating.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Highly diversified business model with robust fee-based revenue streams (fiduciary, asset management, and transaction cards) representing nearly 38% of total revenue, lowering interest rate sensitivity.
Superb underwriting track record with net charge-offs and nonperforming assets (20 bps in Q2 2026) consistently hovering well below peer averages.
Strong geographic footprint in high-growth markets across the Southwest and Midwest (Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Arizona) fueling record loan production.
Consistent commitment to shareholder returns, highlighted by a 12+ year consecutive dividend growth streak.

Key Investment Risks

Concentration risk in specialized lending sectors, particularly energy (historically up to 17% of loans) and commercial real estate.
Deposit repricing and margin compression as high-cost interest-bearing deposits pressure net interest margins.
Premium valuation relative to regional banking peers, trading near its 52-week high and 1.7x tangible book value, which limits near-term capital appreciation.
Controlled-company governance risk, with George Kaiser owning a significant majority of outstanding shares.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Net interest margin compressing rapidly below 2.75% due to severe deposit flight or aggressive rate cuts.
A sharp spike in nonperforming assets (NPAs) exceeding 50 basis points, driven by systemic defaults in the energy or CRE portfolios.
Full-year loan growth falling below 8%, indicating a sharp slowdown in core C&I demand.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.