Bogota Financial Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.43 Intrinsic Value $9.67median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $9.06Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 7% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $115.6M Enterprise Value $179M Shares Outstanding 12.5M diluted All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Bogota Financial Corp. (BSBK) is transitioning from a highly localized boutique community bank into a larger regional player in New Jersey through its newly announced merger with GSL Savings Bank. The transaction is expected to boost consolidated assets from $877.2 million to approximately $1.0 billion, providing critical scale. While the merger is projected to be accretive to 2026 net income, EPS, and tangible book value, BSBK currently trades at a high trailing P/E multiple (~52x-55x) reflecting low TTM earnings of $0.17 per share. Given the execution risks of the integration and the challenging interest rate environment for small-cap regional banks, a Hold recommendation is warranted until post-merger cost synergies and margin improvements materialize. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Regulatory approvals for the GSL merger are delayed, or integration costs run significantly over budget. Intense deposit competition in the New Jersey market forces BSBK to raise deposit rates, compressing NIM. Asset quality weakens in the commercial real estate portfolio, leading to higher provisions for credit losses and depressing EPS. Base CaseCentral scenario The merger with GSL Savings Bank closes successfully in the second half of 2026. Consolidated assets reach the $1.0 billion threshold, and the integration of GSL's depositors drives deposit growth and cost synergies. Net interest margins stabilize, and EPS rises toward $0.25-$0.30 on an annualized basis as operational efficiencies are realized. Bull CaseUpside scenario The acquisition of GSL Savings Bank will successfully expand Bogota Financial's asset base to approximately $1.0 billion, delivering immediate accretion to net income, EPS, and tangible book value, while the bank's balance sheet restructuring and return to profitability in 2025 provide positive operational momentum. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |