Blue Owl Capital Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Blue Owl Capital Inc

OWLNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryAsset Management

Beta (adjusted)1.14

Intrinsic Value $6.80median of 6 methods · middle span $2-$26based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $8.95Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 24% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $14B

Enterprise Value $17.7B

Shares Outstanding 1.6B diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend31 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Blue Owl enters the second half of 2026 with $319 billion of AUM, a maintained $0.23 quarterly dividend and evidence of fundraising breadth across alternative credit and European real assets. A Hold recommendation therefore balances demonstrated platform momentum against execution, fundraising, acquisition-integration, regulatory and macroeconomic risks.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets17 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$9.00

Mean target$12.56

High · most bullish analyst$20.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$9.0020%

Fundraising or deployment weakens, AUM falls back below the December 2025 level, or acquisition, regulatory and macroeconomic pressures impair execution. A dividend reduction would reinforce concerns about distributable-earnings durability.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$12.5655%

Matches the consensus mean

AUM and fundraising continue to expand at a more measured pace, while the $0.23 quarterly dividend is maintained. Recently closed strategies support incremental fee generation, but execution and market uncertainty limit near-term rerating visibility.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$20.0025%

AUM advances materially beyond the June 2026 level as successful fundraising in asset-based finance and European net lease strategies translates into deployment and fee generation. Continued diversification across the firm's investment platforms and preservation of the quarterly dividend strengthen investor confidence.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Blue Owl reported $319 billion of AUM at June 30, 2026 across three investment platforms, supported by a permanent-capital-oriented model.
Recent fundraising demonstrates strategy breadth: ASOF IX closed with approximately $2.9 billion, above its $2.5 billion target, while the inaugural European net lease fund closed with €1.6 billion, above its €1.0 billion original target.

Key Investment Risks

The issuer identifies acquisition benefits and costs, growth management, plan execution, regulation, litigation, competition and macroeconomic or geopolitical conditions as factors that could cause outcomes to differ materially.
The investment case depends on sustaining fundraising, deployment and AUM growth; a reversal below the $307 billion year-end 2025 level would undermine the demonstrated expansion to $319 billion by June 2026.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.