Blue Owl Capital Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Blue Owl Capital Corp

OBDCNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryAsset Management

Beta (adjusted)0.75

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $10.44Price as of 1 Oct 2026

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Market Cap $5.1B

Enterprise Value $12.8B

Shares Outstanding 500.2M diluted

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend31 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Blue Owl Capital Corp (OBDC) presents a compelling relative-value opportunity within the Business Development Company (BDC) sector. Following the termination of its controversial merger with OBDC II and broader private credit market anxieties, the stock trades at a historically wide discount of approximately 23% to its Net Asset Value (NAV) of $14.41. While declining base rates and spread compression have pressured Net Investment Income (NII), prompting a reduction in the base dividend to $0.31 per share, the company's credit quality remains highly resilient with non-accruals at just 1.0% of fair value. Supported by a robust $300 million share repurchase program and over $4 billion in liquidity, OBDC is well-positioned to navigate a lower-rate environment while delivering double-digit dividend yields to income-focused investors.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets13 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$11.00

Mean target$13.17

High · most bullish analyst$15.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$11.0015%

In the bear case, a rapid decline in base rates severely compresses net interest margins, while refinancing low-cost legacy debt at yields above 6.5% further erodes profitability. Concurrently, a broader economic slowdown triggers credit defaults in the software and healthcare services portfolios, pushing non-accruals above 3.0% and forcing further dividend cuts. Investor sentiment remains depressed, keeping the stock at a deep discount to book value.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$13.1760%

Matches the consensus mean

In the base case, OBDC's earnings stabilize around the newly adjusted base dividend of $0.31 per share, supported by healthy spillover income of $0.28 per share. The company successfully manages its leverage within its target range of 1.13x to 1.25x. Credit quality remains stable with non-accruals hovering around 1.0% to 1.5% at fair value. The stock trades at a moderate discount to NAV, yielding an attractive 11% total dividend return.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$15.0025%

In the bull case, private credit deal flow accelerates, allowing OBDC to deploy its $4 billion in excess liquidity into higher-yielding, senior secured loans on improved terms. Credit spreads widen, offsetting base rate declines, while non-accruals remain near zero. Aggressive share repurchases under the $300 million authorization drive NAV accretion, and the stock's valuation multiple converges toward its historical average, closing the discount to NAV.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Significant NAV Discount: Trading at approximately 0.77x NAV ($11.00 share price vs. $14.41 NAV), providing a substantial margin of safety and valuation upside.
Strong Credit Quality: Highly diversified portfolio with non-accruals limited to 1.0% at fair value and a conservative weighted average loan-to-value (LTV) of 47%.
Robust Liquidity and Capital Return: Over $4 billion in liquidity and an active $300 million share repurchase program that is highly accretive when executed below NAV.

Key Investment Risks

Interest Rate Sensitivity: With 96.1% of debt investments at floating rates, declining SOFR directly pressures interest income.
Refinancing Headwinds: Replacing low-cost ZIRP-era unsecured debt with new notes yielding 6.5% or higher narrows the BDC's borrowing arbitrage.
Reputational and Sector Sentiment: Collateral damage from parent company (OWL) controversies and redemption pressures in non-traded BDCs could continue to weigh on valuation multiples.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Non-accrual rate rising above 2.5% at fair value, indicating deteriorating underwriting standards.
Net Investment Income falling below the $0.31 quarterly base dividend, threatening dividend sustainability.
A sharp contraction in the investment portfolio size due to net repayments exceeding new originations over multiple quarters.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.