Bloom Energy Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Bloom Energy Corp

BENYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryElectrical Equipment

Beta (adjusted)2.87

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $277.58Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $81.8B

Enterprise Value $81.9B

Shares Outstanding 329.9M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Bloom Energy entered the second half of 2026 with exceptional operating momentum: second-quarter revenue exceeded $1 billion, GAAP gross margin reached 33.4%, operating cash flow was positive, and management raised full-year revenue guidance to $3.9-$4.2 billion. The initial 1.2 GW Oracle commitment, the expanded $25 billion Brookfield financing framework, approximately 250 MW serving nearly two dozen AI-infrastructure customers, and Power Connect's claimed installation-time reduction reinforce the speed-to-power opportunity. However, the thesis depends on converting large agreements into deployments and revenue while preserving margins and cash generation.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets26 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$97.00

Mean target$275.08

High · most bullish analyst$390.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$97.0020%

Large AI projects experience installation, permitting, financing, supply, or customer-timing delays; 2026 revenue falls below the lower end of guidance; and gross margin or operating cash flow deteriorates as Bloom scales. Concentration in large deployments and sensitivity to AI infrastructure spending would amplify the effect of execution slippage.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$275.0855%

Matches the consensus mean

Bloom delivers within its $3.9-$4.2 billion 2026 revenue range, maintains positive operating cash flow, and progresses the contracted 1.2 GW Oracle deployment while margins remain near management's approximately 34% non-GAAP target. Growth moderates from the extraordinary second-quarter rate as comparisons and project timing normalize.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$390.0025%

Bloom executes near the upper end of 2026 revenue guidance, sustains gross margin around or above its approximately 34% non-GAAP objective, and converts the initial Oracle capacity and broader AI pipeline into timely deployments. Power Connect improves installation throughput, while Brookfield-backed financing supports additional large projects without becoming a bottleneck.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 revenue increased 165.5% year over year to $1.065 billion, with GAAP operating income of $182.2 million and $226.4 million of operating cash flow.
Management raised full-year 2026 guidance to $3.9-$4.2 billion of revenue, approximately 34% non-GAAP gross margin, and $800-$900 million of non-GAAP operating income.
Oracle contracted an initial 1.2 GW, with a master agreement supporting procurement of up to 2.8 GW, creating a substantial multiyear deployment opportunity.
Brookfield expanded its framework for financing AI power projects using Bloom technology from $5 billion to $25 billion, potentially reducing customer financing friction.
Bloom reported nearly two dozen AI-infrastructure customers representing approximately 250 MW, while Power Connect is designed to reduce onsite installation time by more than 40%.

Key Investment Risks

The investment case relies on large contractual commitments and frameworks converting into completed installations and recognized revenue; project timing can be affected by construction, permitting, interconnection, financing, and customer decisions.
Rapid growth requires timely and cost-effective manufacturing-capacity expansion and supply-chain execution while controlling product, installation, service, and warranty costs.
Large AI and hyperscale projects can create customer and project concentration, making quarterly results sensitive to individual deployment schedules.
A slowdown in AI data-center investment, changes in tax incentives or regulation, tariffs, commodity-price volatility, or financing availability could weaken demand or economics.
Management's non-GAAP measures exclude material items, including stock-based compensation, so GAAP profitability and shareholder dilution require separate monitoring.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.