Block Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryTransaction & Payment Processing Services Beta (adjusted)2.01 Intrinsic Value $74.05median of 6 methods · middle span $36-$84based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $74.04Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 0% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $44.5B Enterprise Value $43.8B Shares Outstanding 593.4M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Block's second-quarter results showed broad-based momentum: gross profit grew 25% year over year to approximately $3.17 billion, Cash App gross profit reached approximately $1.97 billion, Square gross profit reached approximately $1.16 billion, and adjusted operating income reached approximately $864 million. Management consequently raised FY2026 guidance to $12.51 billion of gross profit and $3.47 billion of adjusted operating income. The investment case depends on continued Cash App monetization, sustained Square acceleration, and preservation of credit quality as consumer lending expands. Regulatory exposure, credit losses, bitcoin-related volatility, and execution following substantial organizational changes remain important offsets. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$75.00 Mean target$97.98 High · most bullish analyst$125.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $55.0022% Cash App growth slows, expanding consumer lending produces higher losses, or Square's improvement proves temporary. A guidance miss or weaker operating leverage would undermine the earnings-quality narrative and compress the valuation. Base CaseCentral scenario $97.9858% Matches the consensus meanBlock broadly delivers its raised FY2026 gross-profit and adjusted-operating-income outlook, with Cash App remaining the principal growth engine and Square sustaining improved momentum. Bull CaseUpside scenario $125.0020% Cash App sustains strong monetization and lending growth without material credit deterioration, Square maintains double-digit gross-profit growth, and operating leverage exceeds the raised FY2026 outlook. Faster product delivery and network effects support a higher valuation. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |