Blaize Holdings Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Blaize Holdings Inc

BZAINASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryApplication Software

Beta (adjusted)0.43

Intrinsic Value

No headline value published yetWe haven't published a headline intrinsic value for this company yet. Our data-reliability standards weren't met. Method estimates are shown for reference.

Market Price $0.46Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $67.3M

Enterprise Value $31.9M

Shares Outstanding 134.5M diluted

Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Blaize Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: BZAI) is transitioning rapidly from an R&D-focused semiconductor startup to a commercial-scale edge AI computing leader. Following its SPAC merger in January 2025, the company achieved a massive revenue inflection, growing sales 20x to $38.6 million in FY2025. With strong commercial momentum backed by strategic partnerships (including NeoTensr, Nokia, and Winmate) and the launch of its high-margin Blaize AI Services platform, the company is well-positioned to capture the expanding demand for energy-efficient edge AI inference. While liquidity risks and execution hurdles remain, recent capital injections and a robust $130 million revenue target for FY2026 support a highly favorable growth outlook.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets5 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$3.00

Mean target$4.80

High · most bullish analyst$6.50

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Supply chain constraints or memory component shortages delay product shipments, causing Blaize to miss its FY2026 revenue targets. High cash burn persists, forcing dilutive equity offerings and depressing the stock price near its 52-week lows.

Base CaseCentral scenario

Blaize successfully executes its commercial pipeline, meeting its FY2026 revenue guidance of $130 million. Gross margins stabilize above 30% as high-margin software and API-based AI services begin to contribute to the revenue mix. The company leverages its $35 million capital raise and B. Riley equity facility to sustain operations until it approaches cash-flow breakeven in late 2027.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

Rapid top-line growth driven by large multi-year sovereign AI and smart infrastructure programs (such as Starshine and Yotta) providing contracted revenue visibility of approximately $160 million over the next six quarters, coupled with a shift toward high-margin, recurring API-based software revenue.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Explosive revenue growth, with FY2025 revenue up 20x year-over-year to $38.6 million.
Strong commercial pipeline, including a $50 million contract with NeoTensr and a $15 million first-year target with Winmate.
Launch of Blaize AI Services, introducing high-margin, recurring API-based revenue streams.
Strategic positioning in the high-growth edge AI inference market, offering superior power efficiency over traditional GPUs.

Key Investment Risks

Going concern and liquidity risks, with a net loss of $22.7 million in Q1 2026 and reliance on ongoing financing.
Execution and scaling risks as the company transitions from pilot programs to high-volume production.
Potential supply chain and component constraints (e.g., HBM memory dependencies) affecting shipment timing.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to fulfill the $11 million NeoTensr purchase order in Q2 2026.
Significant downward revision of the FY2026 revenue guidance of $130 million.
Inability to secure additional working capital, leading to severe liquidity distress.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.