Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc

BXMTNYSE

SectorReal Estate

IndustryREIT - Mortgage

Beta (adjusted)0.93

Intrinsic Value $16.68median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $11.30Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 48% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $1.9B

Enterprise Value $14.6B

Shares Outstanding 168M diluted

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) is navigating a challenging commercial real estate environment characterized by elevated interest rates and structural pressure in the office sector. While the company has successfully rotated its portfolio toward multifamily and industrial assets (now over 50% of the loan book) and maintains a high performing loan rate of 98%, its dividend sustainability remains a key concern. Distributable EPS of $0.21 in Q1 2026 fell short of the $0.47 dividend, although distributable EPS prior to realized losses of $0.49 provided coverage. Given the persistent credit resolution costs and high leverage, a Hold rating reflects a balanced view of its high yield against underlying credit risks.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets7 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$16.00

Mean target$18.86

High · most bullish analyst$23.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Persistent inflation forces interest rates higher, causing further defaults in pre-2022 office loans. Realized losses mount, eroding book value below $19.00 and forcing a dividend cut, which triggers a sell-off toward the lower end of its historical trading range.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The portfolio continues its gradual stabilization as interest rates remain higher-for-longer. Repayments and asset rotation offset incremental office loan defaults, allowing BXMT to maintain its quarterly dividend of $0.47 per share, supported by distributable earnings prior to realized losses.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong sponsorship and operational resources from the Blackstone platform.
Aggressive portfolio rotation with multifamily and industrial sectors now representing over 50% of the loan book.
High liquidity and open capital markets access, demonstrated by the recent $450 million senior secured notes offering.

Key Investment Risks

Significant remaining exposure to the structurally challenged office sector (approx. 29% of portfolio).
Fragile dividend coverage with GAAP net losses and thin distributable earnings coverage after realized losses.
High leverage (~4.6x debt-to-equity) magnifying the impact of any incremental loan defaults.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A formal reduction in the quarterly dividend below $0.47 per share.
An increase in non-performing loans beyond 5% of the total portfolio.
A drop in book value per share below $19.00.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.