Blackstone Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Blackstone Inc

BXNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryAsset Management & Custody Banks

Beta (adjusted)1.36

Intrinsic Value $127.04median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $112.24Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 13% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $134.2B

Enterprise Value $145B

Shares Outstanding 1.2B diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend3 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Blackstone entered the second half of 2026 with record AUM, strong inflows and double-digit fee-related earnings growth, while its scale and exposure to data centers, power, private credit and recovering real-estate markets provide substantial structural opportunity.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets21 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$119.00

Mean target$142.38

High · most bullish analyst$184.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$119.0020%

A prolonged capital-markets slowdown, renewed inflation or rate pressure, weaker fundraising, lower realizations, or execution problems in capital-intensive AI infrastructure reduce fee growth and performance income.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$142.3850%

Matches the consensus mean

AUM and management fees continue growing, but normalization from exceptionally strong second-quarter inflows and uneven realization activity produce a more moderate earnings trajectory. Blackstone's diversification and scale offset cyclical pressure.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$184.0030%

Sustained fundraising, expanding perpetual-capital and private-wealth channels, stronger realization activity and continued demand for AI-related data-center and power infrastructure could maintain elevated fee growth and improve performance-related earnings.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Record AUM and strong quarterly inflows demonstrate fundraising scale and broaden the recurring management-fee base.
Blackstone has substantial exposure to structural capital-demand themes, including data centers, power infrastructure, asset-based finance and a recovering private-real-estate market.

Key Investment Risks

Performance revenue, realizations and portfolio valuations are sensitive to capital-market liquidity, interest rates and broader macroeconomic conditions.
Large commitments to AI and digital infrastructure create development, power-availability, customer-concentration and execution exposure.
Geopolitical shocks, fiscal pressures, uneven global growth and renewed inflation could weaken transaction activity and investor risk appetite.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.