Blackrock Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Blackrock Inc

BLKNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryAsset Management & Custody Banks

Beta (adjusted)1.27

Intrinsic Value $933.49median of 6 methods · middle span $863-$1,065based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $1,064.36Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 12% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $172.9B

Enterprise Value $175.2B

Shares Outstanding 169.2M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date13 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend8 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

BlackRock entered the second half of 2026 with $15.3 trillion of assets under management, $868 billion of trailing-twelve-month net inflows, 10% organic base fee growth and continued double-digit technology growth. These results support the strategic case for scale, ETFs, private markets and Aladdin, while management's 2030 objectives provide measurable execution benchmarks.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets16 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$1,190.00

Mean target$1,314.44

High · most bullish analyst$1,488.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$1,190.0017%

Market-sensitive AUM and fee revenue weaken, organic base fee growth falls below the 5% through-cycle objective, or integration and fundraising execution prevent private markets and technology from delivering the targeted mix and margin benefits.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$1,314.4456%

Matches the consensus mean

BlackRock broadly delivers its stated strategy: organic base fee growth remains near or above 5% through the cycle, operating margin reaches at least 45%, and private markets plus technology progressively represent a larger revenue contribution.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$1,488.0027%

BlackRock sustains organic base fee growth above its 5% through-cycle target, maintains operating margin above 45%, and integrates private-markets and technology assets fast enough to exceed the stated 2030 ambitions. The second-quarter combination of record AUM, broad-based inflows and technology growth is consistent with this outcome.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Record $15.3 trillion of AUM and $868 billion of trailing-twelve-month net inflows demonstrate exceptional distribution scale.
Second-quarter organic base fee growth of 10% was twice management's stated 5% through-cycle objective.
Technology services and subscription revenue grew 13% year over year, supporting diversification beyond market-linked management fees.
Management targets at least 45% operating margin through the cycle, more than $35 billion of revenue by 2030, and at least 30% of revenue from private markets and technology.
The board declared a $5.73 quarterly dividend, while BlackRock reported $450 million of second-quarter repurchases and increased planned quarterly repurchases to $550 million.

Key Investment Risks

Revenue remains sensitive to market levels: BlackRock attributed part of second-quarter revenue growth to positive market effects.
The 2030 strategy requires successful integration and synergy execution across acquired private-markets and data platforms.
Failure to sustain at least 5% organic base fee growth would weaken a central premise of management's long-term framework.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.