BlackBerry Ltd Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure Beta (adjusted)1.29 Intrinsic Value $3.94median of 5 methods · middle span $4-$4based on filings through 31 May 2026 Market Price $9.18Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 57% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-57%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.4B Enterprise Value $5.3B Shares Outstanding 589.9M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date17 Dec 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary BlackBerry has successfully completed its operational turnaround, achieving its eighth consecutive quarter of positive GAAP net income in Q4 FY2026. The company's growth engine is its IoT/QNX division, which boasts a record $950 million royalty backlog and high-profile partnerships with Nvidia, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz. However, the stock has experienced a massive retail-driven run-up of over 150% in the past six months, pushing its trailing price-to-sales multiple to approximately 9x-12x. This premium valuation creates a disconnect from its near-term cash generation capabilities, as QNX design wins monetize slowly over long automotive manufacturing cycles. While the long-term outlook is promising, near-term upside is limited by valuation constraints and intense competition in the cybersecurity segment. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$5.20 Mean target$9.71 High · most bullish analyst$13.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $5.2020% Delays in global automotive production cycles slowing QNX royalty recognition, market share losses in the highly competitive endpoint security market to hyperscalers, and a sharp contraction of the current elevated valuation multiples. Base CaseCentral scenario $9.7160% Matches the consensus meanSteady execution of the FY2027 guidance with consolidated revenue reaching $584M-$611M, QNX maintaining double-digit growth, and Secure Communications returning to full-year growth. Valuation multiples compress slightly as retail momentum cools, aligning the stock closer to institutional fair value. Bull CaseUpside scenario $13.0020% Accelerated monetization of the QNX backlog, rapid adoption of Software-Defined Vehicles (SDVs), successful expansion of QNX into adjacent verticals like medical and robotics, and an upcoming Arctic Wolf IPO (where BlackBerry holds 5.5 million shares) driving a significant re-rating. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |