Black Hills Corp Dossier
|
SectorUtilities IndustryUtilities - Regulated Gas Beta (adjusted)0.81 Intrinsic Value $61.68median of 5 methods · middle span $56-$65based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $70.14Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 12% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.3B Enterprise Value $9.7B Shares Outstanding 77M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend17 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Black Hills Corp. (BKH) represents a highly stable, regulated utility play with a unique, high-growth catalyst driven by massive data center demand in its Wyoming service territory. Standalone operations are supported by a robust $4.7 billion five-year capital plan and a 56-year track record of consecutive dividend increases. The pending tax-free, all-stock merger with NorthWestern Energy (expected to close in H2 2026) will create a premier regional utility, Bright Horizon Energy Corporation, doubling the rate base to approximately $11 billion and accelerating the long-term EPS growth target from 4-6% to 5-7%. Near-term weather headwinds in Q1 2026 have created an attractive entry point for long-term investors. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$80.00 Mean target$84.80 High · most bullish analyst$87.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $80.00 Regulatory approvals for the NorthWestern merger are delayed or conditioned on highly restrictive rate freezes or unfavorable capital structures. Persistent mild weather continues to depress gas utility volumes, and rising financing costs compress margins, limiting EPS growth to the lower end of the standalone 4-6% target. Base CaseCentral scenario $84.80 Matches the consensus meanThe merger with NorthWestern Energy closes in late 2026, establishing Bright Horizon Energy. Standalone 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.25 to $4.45 is achieved under normal weather conditions. The company successfully executes its $4.7 billion capital plan, maintaining its investment-grade credit profile and delivering on the 600 MW data center pipeline by 2030. Bull CaseUpside scenario $87.00 Definitive agreements are secured for the prospective 1.8 GW data center project in Wyoming, significantly exceeding the baseline 600 MW target by 2030. The NorthWestern Energy merger closes smoothly in H2 2026 with minimal regulatory friction, achieving immediate cost synergies and constructive ROE determinations in South Dakota and Colorado rate reviews. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |