Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc

BDTXNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)2.49

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $1.88Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $107.7M

Enterprise Value $88.5M

Shares Outstanding 57.4M diluted

Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Black Diamond Therapeutics is a high-conviction, clinical-stage precision oncology play centered on its lead asset, silevertinib (BDTX-1535). Silevertinib is a brain-penetrant, fourth-generation EGFR MasterKey inhibitor targeting non-classical EGFR mutations in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and glioblastoma (GBM). Recent Phase 2 data in frontline EGFR non-classical mutation NSCLC demonstrated a highly competitive 15.2-month median PFS, a 60% overall response rate, and an outstanding 86% CNS response rate, significantly outperforming historical benchmarks of 6-11 months. Backed by a robust cash runway extending into the second half of 2028—bolstered by the $70 million upfront out-licensing of BDTX-4933 to Servier—the company is well-positioned to advance its clinical programs and secure a strategic partnership for pivotal development, making it an attractive risk-reward opportunity at its current valuation.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets7 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$7.00

Mean target$9.86

High · most bullish analyst$14.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$4.0015%

The FDA requires a large, lengthy, and active-controlled Phase 3 trial for frontline NSCLC, delaying commercialization. Partnering discussions stall, forcing Black Diamond to fund pivotal development independently, which triggers substantial equity dilution and exhausts its cash runway faster than projected. Additionally, the GBM trial fails to show a statistically significant survival benefit due to the extreme heterogeneity of glioblastoma, limiting silevertinib's market potential to a smaller niche.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$10.2555%

Silevertinib continues to show durable responses in frontline NSCLC, and the company aligns with the FDA on a standard Phase 3 registrational trial design. The Phase 2 GBM trial successfully completes its safety lead-in and proceeds with steady enrollment. Black Diamond leverages its strong clinical data to secure a regional or global development partnership by late 2026 or early 2027, preserving its cash runway (which currently extends into 2H 2028) and steadily re-rating the stock toward consensus analyst targets.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$14.0030%

Silevertinib's frontline NSCLC data is deemed registrational by the FDA, leading to an accelerated approval pathway. The drug's exceptional blood-brain barrier penetration and 86% CNS ORR establish it as the best-in-class agent for the ~10,000 annual US patients with non-classical EGFR mutations. Simultaneously, the newly initiated Phase 2 GBM trial in combination with TMZ delivers strong efficacy signals, prompting a lucrative global co-development partnership with a major pharmaceutical firm. This eliminates dilution overhang and drives the stock toward its high-end analyst targets.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Differentiated clinical profile of silevertinib, showing a 15.2-month mPFS that substantially exceeds historical outcomes (6-11 months) for non-classical EGFR mutations.
Exceptional CNS activity (86% CNS ORR) and prevention of de novo brain metastases, addressing a critical vulnerability in EGFR-mutant NSCLC and GBM.
Strong balance sheet with $118.3 million in cash as of Q1 2026, providing an operational runway into the second half of 2028.
Validated platform technology with a history of successful out-licensing, such as the $70 million upfront deal with Servier for BDTX-4933.

Key Investment Risks

Single-asset concentration risk, with the company's valuation heavily dependent on the clinical and regulatory success of silevertinib.
Partnership dependency to fund expensive Phase 3 registrational trials without causing severe shareholder dilution.
High clinical development risk in glioblastoma (GBM), an indication historically characterized by high trial failure rates due to tumor heterogeneity.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A sudden deterioration in the durability of response or late-emerging safety/toxicity signals in the ongoing silevertinib NSCLC cohorts.
Failure to secure a strategic development partner within the next 12-18 months, leading to dilutive capital raises.
Regulatory refusal by the FDA to accept the Phase 2 data package as a basis for an accelerated or streamlined registrational pathway.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.