BKV Corp Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas E&P Beta (adjusted)1.03 Intrinsic Value $38.58median of 6 methods · middle span $24-$73based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $21.34Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 81% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+81%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.3B Enterprise Value $3.4B Shares Outstanding 108.1M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary BKV Corp represents a highly differentiated, vertically integrated energy player that uniquely bridges traditional natural gas production with low-carbon power generation and carbon capture, utilization, and sequestration (CCUS). By consolidating its Power JV (Temple I and II plants) to a 75% ownership stake, BKV is strategically positioned to capture the surging power demand in the ERCOT market driven by AI and data center development. Furthermore, its pioneering CCUS initiatives (such as Barnett Zero and Cotton Cove) provide a clear pathway to achieving net-zero Scope 1 and 2 emissions by the early 2030s, while creating a highly lucrative, tax-credit-backed 'Carbon Sequestered Gas' product. Backed by strong sponsor support from Banpu, BKV offers investors a compelling combination of stable upstream cash flows and high-growth clean energy optionality. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$28.00 Mean target$34.09 High · most bullish analyst$39.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects a prolonged downturn in natural gas prices below $2.50/MMBtu, suboptimal performance or operational outages at the Temple power plants, and delays in CCUS project execution. Higher interest rates and capital cost overruns in the power growth segment could strain liquidity and push net leverage above target levels. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes natural gas prices stabilize around $3.50 to $4.00/MMBtu, allowing BKV to maintain its upstream production guidance of 915-955 MMcfe/d. The consolidated Temple power plants generate steady cash flows, supported by the execution of a power purchase agreement (PPA) with a data center or hyperscaler. CCUS projects scale as planned, generating valuable Section 45Q tax credits and enabling the commercial launch of Carbon Sequestered Gas in late 2026. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |