BJ's Restaurant Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryRestaurants Beta (adjusted)1.21 Intrinsic Value $42.23median of 6 methods · middle span $37-$52based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $57.29Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 26% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.2B Enterprise Value $1.2B Shares Outstanding 21.4M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend9 Mar 2020 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary BJ's Restaurants is demonstrating solid operational turnaround momentum under CEO Lyle Tick, highlighted by consecutive quarters of positive comparable restaurant sales and traffic growth. The company's value-focused initiatives, such as the Pizookie Meal Deal, continue to drive guest frequency. However, near-term profitability remains pressured by labor inefficiencies and weather-related disruptions, leading to mixed quarterly earnings. While the appointment of Monika Saxena as Brand President signals a strong focus on brand fortification and long-term growth, the stock's recent run to new 52-week highs leaves limited immediate upside relative to cautious consensus analyst targets. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$65.00 Mean target$75.38 High · most bullish analyst$82.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $65.0020% Persistent labor cost pressures and commodity volatility erode restaurant-level operating margins. A broader macroeconomic slowdown or pullback in consumer discretionary spending dampens casual dining traffic, causing same-store sales to turn negative and stalling the company's turnaround momentum. Base CaseCentral scenario $75.3850% Matches the consensus meanBJ's Restaurants achieves its fiscal 2026 guidance of 1% to 3% comparable restaurant sales growth and Adjusted EBITDA of $140 million to $150 million. Operational simplification and cost-control measures support steady restaurant-level operating margins, while the stock trades in line with historical valuation multiples. Bull CaseUpside scenario $82.0030% Monika Saxena successfully replicates her LongHorn Steakhouse playbook, driving sustained traffic and average check growth through menu innovation and frequency strategies. Compressed capital expenditures in fiscal 2026 turn the company into a short-term cash cow, generating significant free cash flow to fund aggressive share buybacks. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |