BioNTech SE ADR Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)1.17 Intrinsic Value $85.84median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $96.85Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $24.3B Enterprise Value $16.7B Shares Outstanding 241.7M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend2 Jun 2022 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary BioNTech offers substantial oncology option value through 14 ongoing pivotal trials, a broad pumitamig program and several near-term late-stage readouts, supported by a strong funding position. The counterweight is that oncology commercialization remains unproven, COVID-19 vaccine demand has been softer than expected, 2026 revenue guidance was reduced, and a CEO transition is pending. The balance of large clinical upside and material execution uncertainty supports a neutral stance until pivotal evidence provides greater validation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$76.41 Mean target$120.71 High · most bullish analyst$144.68 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $76.4125% The bear case reflects disappointing or delayed pivotal readouts, failure to advance the planned trastuzumab pamirtecan regulatory pathway, continued weakness in COVID-19 vaccine demand, and disruption during the CEO and founder transition. These outcomes would reduce confidence that the large late-stage portfolio can produce timely oncology approvals despite BioNTech's funding capacity. Base CaseCentral scenario $120.7155% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes mixed but generally constructive clinical progress: selected programs advance, the broad pivotal portfolio preserves substantial option value, and the leadership transition remains orderly, but no near-term evidence fully resolves commercialization risk or dependence on seasonal COVID-19 and collaboration revenue. Bull CaseUpside scenario $144.6820% The bull case requires the remaining 2026 late-stage readouts to validate multiple oncology platforms, including supportive pivotal evidence for gotistobart and trastuzumab pamirtecan, while pumitamig continues to demonstrate differentiated activity across tumor types and combinations. Successful regulatory progress would materially reduce the pipeline's clinical discount and strengthen the path toward a multi-product oncology business. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |