Biomarin Pharmaceutical Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Biomarin Pharmaceutical Inc

BMRNNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)0.48

Intrinsic Value $101.09median of 6 methods · middle span $34-$231based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $58.44Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 73% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+73%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $11.3B

Enterprise Value $14.6B

Shares Outstanding 194.9M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

BioMarin entered the second half of 2026 with strong commercial momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 20% year over year, management raised full-year revenue and VOXZOGO guidance, and the hypochondroplasia Phase 3 program produced positive pivotal results. The Amicus acquisition added GALAFOLD and POMBILITI plus OPFOLDA and provides a defined synergy opportunity, but it also materially increased acquisition, integration, interest, and leverage exposure. The proposed Alesta acquisition further expands the pipeline but adds early-stage clinical and capital-allocation risk.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets25 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$60.00

Mean target$90.56

High · most bullish analyst$124.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$60.0022%

Commercial performance falls below the lower ends of the 2026 revenue or VOXZOGO guidance, Amicus integration savings are delayed, leverage remains at or above the mid-2027 target ceiling, or VOXZOGO encounters a material regulatory setback. Additional downside would follow if early-stage external pipeline investments consume capital without offsetting clinical progress, repeating the portfolio attrition demonstrated by the discontinuation of BMN 401.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$90.5658%

Matches the consensus mean

BioMarin delivers within its updated 2026 guidance ranges, integrates Amicus with measurable but phased cost reductions, and progresses the VOXZOGO regulatory program without a major setback. Alesta closes on broadly announced terms and remains a longer-duration pipeline option.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$124.0020%

BioMarin exceeds the upper end of its 2026 revenue and VOXZOGO guidance, converts strong VOXZOGO demand into sustained growth, secures favorable regulatory outcomes in achondroplasia and hypochondroplasia, and realizes the Amicus cost reductions and leverage target on or ahead of schedule. GALAFOLD, POMBILITI plus OPFOLDA, and additional pipeline assets then broaden growth beyond VOXZOGO.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 revenue increased 20% year over year to $990 million, and BioMarin raised full-year total-revenue guidance to $3.875-$3.925 billion and VOXZOGO guidance to $1.000-$1.050 billion.
The pivotal CANOPY-HCH-3 study met its primary endpoint, with VOXZOGO producing a 2.33 cm/year placebo-adjusted improvement in annualized growth velocity and no new safety signals, supporting a potential additional indication in hypochondroplasia.
The Amicus acquisition added GALAFOLD and POMBILITI plus OPFOLDA, while management identified approximately $220 million of annualized non-GAAP cost reductions expected to be fully realized in 2028.

Key Investment Risks

Amicus integration increased acquisition-related costs, amortization, interest expense, and indebtedness; BioMarin must execute its cost-reduction plan and reduce gross leverage below 2.5x by mid-year 2027.
Clinical and regulatory outcomes remain uncertain: BMN 401 failed one of two co-primary Phase 3 endpoints and was subsequently discontinued across all indications.
The raised $1.000-$1.050 billion VOXZOGO guidance underscores the product's material importance, increasing sensitivity to demand, reimbursement, safety, competition, and regulatory outcomes.
The proposed Alesta acquisition requires $275 million upfront, may require up to $215 million of milestone payments, concerns a Phase 1/2a asset, and was expected to be modestly dilutive to 2026 results excluding upfront consideration.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.