Biodesix Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryHealth Care Services Beta (adjusted)0.70 Intrinsic Value $48.15median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $27.33Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 76% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+76%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $288.4M Enterprise Value $308.4M Shares Outstanding 10.2M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Biodesix is demonstrating robust commercial execution in the lung diagnostics space, highlighted by a 42% year-over-year revenue increase in Q1 2026. The company's dual-engine growth model—combining high-margin Diagnostic Testing (Nodify Lung and IQLung) with rapidly expanding Development Services—is driving significant operating leverage. With gross margins reaching 84% and a clear path toward Adjusted EBITDA profitability, Biodesix represents a compelling growth opportunity in the precision medicine and life sciences tools sector. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$26.00 Mean target$30.83 High · most bullish analyst$40.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $15.00 Sales force expansion yields diminishing returns, or primary care adoption stalls. Increased competition in liquid biopsy or unexpected payer reimbursement headwinds compress average revenue per test, delaying the timeline to profitability and requiring additional dilutive capital raises. Base CaseCentral scenario $22.00 Biodesix successfully executes its commercial strategy, adding ~6 sales reps per quarter and maintaining steady volume growth. Revenues land within the guided range of $108M to $114M, and gross margins remain stable above 80%, narrowing net losses and progressing steadily toward EBITDA break-even. Bull CaseUpside scenario $32.00 Accelerated adoption of Nodify Lung tests in both pulmonology and primary care channels, combined with rapid expansion of biopharma development services, drives 2026 revenues to the high end of guidance ($114M+) and achieves sustained Adjusted EBITDA profitability ahead of schedule. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |