BioAge Labs Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

BioAge Labs Inc

BIOANASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Beta (adjusted)0.78

Intrinsic Value $11.91median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $6.81Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 75% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+75%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $312.6M

Enterprise Value $238.6M

Shares Outstanding 43.7M diluted

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

BioAge Labs is a highly promising clinical-stage biotechnology company targeting the biology of human aging to treat metabolic and inflammatory diseases. The company's lead asset, BGE-102 (an oral, brain-penetrant NLRP3 inhibitor), has demonstrated potential best-in-class reductions in inflammatory biomarkers (86% median hsCRP reduction) in Phase 1 trials. Backed by a robust cash runway extending through 2029 following an upsized $132.3 million follow-on offering in early 2026, BioAge is well-positioned to advance its pipeline through multiple high-impact clinical readouts, including Phase 2 cardiovascular risk data in H2 2026.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets8 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$20.00

Mean target$35.63

High · most bullish analyst$73.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$20.0015%

BGE-102 fails to replicate its Phase 1 biomarker efficacy or exhibits safety/tolerability issues in the larger Phase 2 QUELL-CV cohort. Preclinical delays push the APJ agonist IND filing into 2027, leading to a significant re-rating downward as the market discounts the pipeline's commercial viability.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$35.6360%

Matches the consensus mean

BioAge successfully executes its planned Phase 2 trials for BGE-102, with positive topline cardiovascular risk data in H2 2026 confirming its strong biomarker reduction profile. The company files its first APJ agonist IND by year-end 2026. Prudent cash management preserves the runway through 2029, supporting steady valuation appreciation toward consensus analyst targets.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$73.0025%

BGE-102 delivers injectable-like anti-inflammatory efficacy in an oral format, achieving outstanding Phase 2 results in cardiovascular risk and diabetic macular edema. Concurrently, the APJ agonist program successfully enters clinical trials by year-end 2026, positioning BioAge as a premier multi-asset metabolic and longevity play, attracting lucrative big pharma partnerships or acquisition offers.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Potential best-in-class oral NLRP3 inhibitor (BGE-102) with rapid, profound reductions in hsCRP, IL-6, and fibrinogen.
Strong balance sheet with $384.9 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities as of Q1 2026, providing a runway through 2029.
Strategic multi-year research collaboration with Novartis, providing validation and recurring collaboration revenue.
Diversified pipeline targeting high-value indications including cardiovascular risk, diabetic macular edema, and obesity (APJ agonists).

Key Investment Risks

Clinical-stage risk: Pre-revenue profile with reliance on successful clinical trial outcomes.
Intense competition in the metabolic and obesity space from established pharmaceutical giants and well-funded biotech peers.
Potential regulatory hurdles or delays in IND filings and clinical trial initiations.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure of BGE-102 to meet its primary endpoint (percent change in hsCRP) in the Phase 2 QUELL-CV trial.
Severe adverse safety events or tolerability issues emerging in ongoing BGE-102 clinical trials.
Inability to file the first APJ agonist IND by the end of 2026, indicating pipeline stagnation.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.