Biglari Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryRestaurants Beta (adjusted)0.76 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $357.19Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.1B Enterprise Value $1.3B Shares Outstanding 3.2M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date6 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Jun 1996 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Biglari Holdings Inc. operates as a highly centralized holding company led by Chairman and CEO Sardar Biglari, who controls over 50% of the voting power. The company's business model mimics a mini-Berkshire Hathaway, utilizing cash flows generated from diverse operating subsidiaries (including Steak n Shake, Western Sizzlin, First Guard Insurance, and Southern Oil) to fund investment partnerships (The Lion Funds). While Steak n Shake's transition to a franchise-partner model has successfully restored operating profitability, the company's overall valuation remains heavily obscured by the quarterly volatility of its investment portfolio (notably its large position in Ferrari). Governance concerns, including the controlled-company status, lack of independent nominating committees, unconventional executive compensation, and a lingering material weakness in internal controls, warrant a cautious Hold stance despite the stock trading at a discount to its underlying asset value. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $230.0015% A severe economic downturn curbs casual dining traffic, causing Steak n Shake's operating margins to contract. Simultaneously, a major correction in equity markets severely devalues the investment partnerships, while the remaining material weakness in internal controls leads to a financial restatement, eroding investor confidence. Base CaseCentral scenario $340.0060% Operating businesses generate stable but modest pre-tax earnings, with Steak n Shake maintaining low-single-digit same-store sales growth. The investment portfolio fluctuates in line with broader equity markets. Governance discounts persist, keeping the stock trading at a structural discount to its net asset value (NAV). Bull CaseUpside scenario $450.0025% Steak n Shake's franchise-partner model continues to expand, driving high-margin royalty streams and robust cash generation. Concurrently, the investment portfolio, led by Ferrari, experiences significant capital appreciation, and the company utilizes its $500 million ATM program opportunistically to acquire undervalued operating businesses with excellent economics. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |