BGC Group Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

BGC Group Inc

BGCNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryCapital Markets

Beta (adjusted)0.97

Intrinsic Value $13.30median of 6 methods · middle span $9-$22based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $11.53Price as of 30 Sep 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 15% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $5.5B

Enterprise Value $6.5B

Shares Outstanding 475M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend19 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

BGC Group, Inc. is undergoing a structural transformation from a traditional voice-brokerage model to a high-margin electronic marketplace and financial technology powerhouse. The primary driver of this thesis is the rapid scaling of its FMX Futures Exchange, which directly challenges CME Group's monopoly in U.S. interest rate futures. Backed by ten of the world's largest investment banks and market-making firms, FMX has achieved a record 41% market share in U.S. Treasury ADV as of Q1 2026. Additionally, the integration of OTC Global has established BGC as a dominant player in the Energy, Commodities, and Shipping (ECS) brokerage space, driving a 120% year-over-year revenue surge in that segment. With an expanded cost-savings program targeting $35 million in annualized savings, BGC is well-positioned to deliver significant operating leverage and margin expansion.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets2 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$15.00

Mean target$15.50

High · most bullish analyst$16.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$15.00

CME Group aggressively defends its interest rate futures monopoly through fee cuts and volume-based incentives, stalling FMX's liquidity build-up in SOFR futures. Regulatory hurdles or clearing friction at LCH limit institutional adoption. Meanwhile, rising compensation expenses and integration costs from OTC Global offset the planned cost-savings, compressing operating margins.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$15.50

Matches the consensus mean

FMX maintains its strong foothold in U.S. Treasuries (around 40% market share) and gradually builds liquidity in SOFR futures. Brokerage revenues grow steadily across rates, foreign exchange, and credit, supported by normalized market volatility. The company successfully realizes its $35 million annualized cost-savings target, leading to steady pre-tax adjusted margin expansion toward 25%.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$16.00

FMX successfully captures substantial market share in both SOFR and U.S. Treasury futures, leveraging its capital-efficient clearing partnership with LCH. The electronic trading platform Fenics continues to grow at a double-digit rate, shifting the revenue mix toward high-margin software and market data. ECS maintains its hyper-growth trajectory, and the newly launched Compute Infrastructure Markets (CIM) division successfully establishes a secondary market for AI compute capacity, creating a highly lucrative new revenue stream.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

FMX's disruptive potential in the multi-billion dollar U.S. interest rate futures market, supported by equity-owning tier-1 investment banks.
Capital efficiency for clients via LCH cross-margining, allowing portfolio offsets against a $225 billion swap collateral pool.
Strong secular tailwinds in the Energy, Commodities, and Shipping (ECS) sector, amplified by the successful integration of OTC Global.
Operating leverage driven by the transition to electronic trading (Fenics) and an expanded $35 million cost reduction program.

Key Investment Risks

Intense competitive retaliation from incumbent exchanges, particularly CME Group.
Execution and liquidity risks associated with scaling newly launched futures contracts.
High sensitivity to macroeconomic factors, interest rate volatility, and global trading volumes.
Rising compensation and technology investment costs that could pressure near-term margins.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

FMX Treasury market share falls consistently below 30%.
Failure to build meaningful open interest in SOFR futures within the next 12 months.
A sharp decline in global fixed-income trading volumes or a prolonged period of ultra-low interest rate volatility.
Annualized cost savings falling materially short of the $35 million target.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.