Bentley Systems Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Bentley Systems Inc

BSYNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySoftware - Application

Beta (adjusted)0.99

Intrinsic Value $53.00median of 6 methods · middle span $44-$61based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $31.95Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 66% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+66%)

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Market Cap $9.7B

Enterprise Value $10.7B

Shares Outstanding 320.4M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend2 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Bentley Systems entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 12.8%, subscription revenue increased 13.6%, constant-currency ARR growth reached 12%, and dollar-based net retention remained 109%. The investment case benefits from recurring revenue, high retention, infrastructure-software specialization, and emerging AI-enabled workflows. The offset is execution risk: second-quarter operating margins declined year over year, AI commercialization remains unproven.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets15 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$40.00

Mean target$44.47

High · most bullish analyst$59.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$40.0020%

Constant-currency ARR growth falls below the 10.5% guidance floor, net retention weakens materially, or operating investment fails to produce growth and margin improvement. Under that outcome, the quality of the recurring-revenue model would remain relevant, but expectations for durable double-digit expansion would require revision.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$44.4755%

Matches the consensus mean

Bentley delivers within its FY2026 ARR-growth and free-cash-flow outlooks, retention remains resilient, and operating investment supports continued double-digit growth.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$59.0025%

Constant-currency ARR growth finishes at or above the upper end of the 10.5%-12.5% FY2026 outlook, net retention remains near or above 109%, margin improvement resumes, and Bentley's AI-connected engineering applications produce incremental adoption without materially increasing costs.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

ARR reached $1.536 billion at June 30, 2026, with 12% constant-currency growth and 109% dollar-based net retention.
Second-quarter revenue grew 12.8% and subscription revenue grew 13.6%, demonstrating broad recurring-revenue momentum.
Bentley has connected AI assistants to established engineering applications through MCP servers for MicroStation and STAAD.Pro, creating potential workflow and adoption benefits.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter operating margin declined to 21.6% from 23.2%, while adjusted operating income less operating stock-based compensation margin declined to 28.3% from 29.3%.
The commercial return from Bentley's AI-enabled engineering capabilities remains unproven despite demonstrated product integration.
A decline in dollar-based net retention from the current 109% level would weaken evidence that existing customers are expanding usage.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.