Becton Dickinson & Co Dossier - Source-backed chat

Becton Dickinson & Co

BDXNYSE

SectorHealth Care

IndustryHealth Care Equipment

Beta (adjusted)0.47

Intrinsic Value $146.74median of 5 methods · middle span $89-$170based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $179.00Price as of 30 Sep 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 18% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $48.8B

Enterprise Value $64.9B

Shares Outstanding 281.4M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend9 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

BD's first full quarter following the Biosciences and Diagnostic Solutions separation showed improving operating momentum: third-quarter revenue rose 4.4% on a foreign-currency-neutral basis, adjusted EPS reached $3.23 and year-to-date free cash flow increased to $1.728 billion. The more focused portfolio, recurring consumables exposure, Interventional growth and Advanced Patient Monitoring adoption support a constructive operating outlook. Balance is required because FDA warning letters and consent-decree oversight remain unresolved, tariffs and China procurement pressure are affecting margins and demand, and substantial product-liability exposure persists.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets12 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$170.00

Mean target$194.42

High · most bullish analyst$225.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$170.0023%

FDA remediation takes longer or leads to additional recalls or selling restrictions, tariff and labor costs continue to pressure gross margin, and China procurement weakness spreads across the international portfolio. Litigation costs or product-remediation charges exceed current expectations, causing revenue growth or adjusted EPS to fall below management's fiscal 2026 outlook.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$194.4258%

Matches the consensus mean

BD delivers near the high end of its low-single-digit fiscal 2026 foreign-currency-neutral revenue outlook and adjusted EPS within the $12.62-$12.72 range. Growth platforms offset sluggish China and vaccine demand, but regulatory remediation, tariffs and litigation constrain the pace of margin expansion.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$225.0019%

Execution of Excellence Unleashed produces sustained foreign-currency-neutral growth above the fiscal 2026 low-single-digit objective, while Connected Care, Interventional and GLP-1 delivery products maintain strong adoption. FDA matters are resolved without material commercial restrictions, manufacturing productivity offsets tariffs and the stronger cash conversion supports continued debt reduction and shareholder distributions.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

The completed Waters transaction created a more focused four-segment medical-technology portfolio and supplied cash used for debt repayment and share repurchases.
Third-quarter revenue increased 5.4% as reported and 4.4% on a foreign-currency-neutral basis, with all four continuing segments reporting growth.
Year-to-date free cash flow increased 44.6% to $1.728 billion, strengthening capacity for debt service, dividends and disciplined capital deployment.

Key Investment Risks

FDA oversight remains material: BD disclosed unresolved Dispensing and El Paso warning-letter matters, continuing Alaris consent-decree obligations and the possibility of recalls, injunctions or penalties.
Tariffs, higher labor costs and China volume-based procurement adversely affected results, while emerging-market revenue declined 2.6% on a foreign-currency-neutral basis in the third quarter.
At June 30, 2026, BD reported approximately 7,090 hernia claims, approximately 3,850 implantable-port claims and about $1.6 billion of accruals for product-liability and certain other legal matters.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.