Beasley Broadcast Group Inc Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryBroadcasting Beta (adjusted)3.30 Intrinsic Value $15.60median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $12.85Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 21% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $23.8M Enterprise Value $161.9M Shares Outstanding 1.8M diluted Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Mar 2020 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Beasley Broadcast Group (BBGI) is undergoing a high-stakes operational and financial transition. While the company has successfully executed a major debt restructuring in early 2026—slashing its immediate going-concern risk by exchanging its second-lien notes into PIK notes and reducing cash interest burdens—it continues to face severe secular headwinds in traditional terrestrial radio advertising. The bull case rests on its rapidly growing, high-margin digital segment (now representing 25% of revenue) and aggressive cost-cutting. However, the looming December 2027 debt maturity and the potential for massive equity dilution (up to 95%) if PIK notes convert to equity keep the risk profile elevated, justifying a Hold rating. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$31.00 Mean target$31.00 High · most bullish analyst$31.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $3.0020% Traditional radio advertising declines accelerate faster than digital can scale, and cost-cutting reaches its limit. The company fails to address its late 2027 debt maturity, triggering a default or a conversion of the PIK notes that virtually wipes out existing Class A common shareholders. Base CaseCentral scenario $23.5055% Beasley slowly transitions to digital, which offsets the mid-single-digit declines in traditional broadcast revenue. Cash interest savings from the PIK note exchange keep the company liquid, but the looming 2027 maturity limits equity upside as the market prices in dilution risks. Bull CaseUpside scenario $50.0025% The digital transformation accelerates rapidly, with digital revenues exceeding 35% of the mix at high margins (29%+), while the traditional radio market stabilizes. Successful asset sales and cost-cutting of $30M annualized allow the company to comfortably refinance or pay down the remaining debt stack before the late 2027 maturity without diluting equity holders. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |