BBVA Argentina ADR Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryBanks - Regional Beta (adjusted)0.30 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $12.85Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $2.6B Shares Outstanding 204.2M diluted Next Earnings Date24 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend3 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. (BBAR) represents a compelling vehicle to play the structural macroeconomic turnaround of Argentina. As the country transitions toward lower inflation and normalized interest rates, BBAR is well-positioned to capture a significant expansion in private sector credit demand. The bank maintains a highly resilient capital position (18.8% regulatory capital ratio) and superior asset quality relative to its local peers. While short-term profitability is pressured by elevated provisions in the retail book, operational efficiency is improving (efficiency ratio down to 51.4% in Q1 2026), and net interest margins remain robust at 18.6%. Trading at a reasonable valuation relative to its long-term franchise value, BBAR offers substantial upside as credit demand normalizes in the second half of 2026. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$25.00 Mean target$26.67 High · most bullish analyst$29.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The macroeconomic recovery stalls, and inflation remains stubbornly high, depressing real incomes and credit demand. Delinquencies in the retail card and consumer portfolios continue to rise, forcing the bank to maintain elevated loan loss provisions. NIM compresses faster than expected due to aggressive deposit rate competition, keeping ROE in the single digits. Base CaseCentral scenario The Argentine economy continues its gradual stabilization with inflation trending downward. Private sector credit demand recovers in the second half of 2026, allowing BBAR to achieve its revised real loan growth guidance of 15%-20%. Net interest margins compress slightly but remain highly profitable, while the NPL ratio peaks and stabilizes around 5.0% by year-end. ROE recovers to the low-to-mid teens. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |