Baxter International Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Baxter International Inc

BAXNYSE

SectorHealth Care

IndustryMedical Instruments & Supplies

Beta (adjusted)0.74

Intrinsic Value $36.92median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $24.00Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 54% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+54%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $12.4B

Enterprise Value $19.7B

Shares Outstanding 516M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend28 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Baxter's operating trajectory improved materially in the second quarter of 2026: companywide organic sales rose 5%, every segment and division grew, first-half free cash flow reached $257 million, and management raised full-year organic-growth and adjusted-EPS guidance. The August debt tender also advances balance-sheet repair. Offsetting these positives, quarterly adjusted EPS declined 5% despite an $0.11-per-share tariff-refund benefit, Novum IQ LVP shipments and installations remained on hold, significant indebtedness still constrains strategic flexibility, and the quarterly dividend has been reduced to $0.01.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets11 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$23.00

Mean target$28.73

High · most bullish analyst$40.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$23.0025%

Organic growth falls below 2%, adjusted EPS misses $1.95, the Novum IQ LVP hold persists, higher-cost inventory and other operating pressures continue to compress profitability, or debt reduction stalls. These outcomes would weaken confidence that the current sales momentum can translate into durable earnings and cash-flow improvement.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$28.7355%

Matches the consensus mean

Baxter delivers organic sales growth within its 2%-3% full-year range and adjusted diluted EPS within $1.95-$2.15, while maintaining positive free cash flow and gradually reducing debt. Novum IQ disruption limits upside but does not derail companywide growth.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$40.0020%

Organic growth reaches or exceeds the 3% upper end of 2026 guidance, adjusted EPS reaches or exceeds $2.15, the Novum IQ LVP hold is resolved without material customer loss, free-cash-flow conversion strengthens, and debt retirement improves financial flexibility.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 sales were $2.96 billion and increased 5% organically, with growth across all segments and divisions.
Management raised full-year 2026 guidance to 2%-3% organic sales growth and $1.95-$2.15 of adjusted diluted EPS.
First-half free cash flow reached $257 million, providing internally generated resources for balance-sheet repair.
Baxter expected to purchase $600 million of notes through its August 2026 tender, demonstrating active deleveraging.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter adjusted diluted EPS declined 5% year over year even though it included an $0.11-per-share tariff-refund benefit.
The Novum IQ LVP shipment and installation hold reduced Infusion Systems sales and remains an important execution risk.
Baxter acknowledges that significant indebtedness consumes cash flow and constrains growth investment and research-and-development flexibility.
The quarterly dividend was reduced to $0.01 per share, underscoring capital-allocation constraints and limiting income support.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.