Bath & Body Works Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustrySpecialty Retail Beta (adjusted)1.25 Intrinsic Value $28.51median of 4 methods · middle span $28-$29based on filings through 1 Aug 2026 Market Price $15.92Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 79% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+79%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.2B Enterprise Value $6B Shares Outstanding 198M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date19 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend21 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Bath & Body Works is navigating a multi-year turnaround under its 'Consumer First Formula' strategy, led by CEO Daniel Heaf. While Q1 2026 results exceeded internal guidance with adjusted EPS of $0.32 and net sales of $1.38 billion, the underlying business remains under pressure with a 3% year-over-year sales decline. The company's strong cash generation (guiding $600 million in FCF for FY2026) and disciplined cost management support its valuation, but top-line headwinds, particularly in the core Body Care segment, and leadership transitions warrant a cautious 'Hold' stance until execution proof points build more meaningfully into 2027. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$19.00 Mean target$25.20 High · most bullish analyst$54.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Macroeconomic pressures and inflation further constrain discretionary consumer spending, leading to deeper sales declines. Promotional dependency increases to clear inventory, eroding gross margins, while the transition to a permanent CFO experiences delays, dragging the stock down toward historical support levels. Base CaseCentral scenario The company achieves its reaffirmed FY2026 guidance of a 4.5% to 2.5% net sales decline and adjusted EPS of $2.40 to $2.65. Body Care performance stabilizes in the second half of the year, and free cash flow reaches the guided $600 million, keeping the stock range-bound as investors wait for sustainable growth in FY2027. Bull CaseUpside scenario The 'Consumer First Formula' accelerates top-line recovery through successful product innovations (e.g., new hand soap formulas), digital expansion (Amazon storefront), and brand modernization. Stronger-than-expected margin expansion from the 'Fuel for Growth' cost-savings program and rapid stabilization of the Body Care category drive shares toward the high end of analyst targets. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |