Barrick Mining Corp Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryGold Beta (adjusted)1.10 Intrinsic Value $100.65median of 6 methods · middle span $24-$200based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $40.67Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 147% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+147%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $66.9B Enterprise Value $64.9B Shares Outstanding 1.7B diluted Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend31 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Barrick's operating trajectory improved materially in Q2 2026: attributable gold production exceeded quarterly guidance, copper output increased sequentially, and full-year production guidance was maintained. The Newmont agreement removes disputes around Nevada Gold Mines, adds excluded properties to a nearly 100-million-ounce complex, provides Barrick with a USD 1.95 billion cash payment and clears an important condition for the proposed North American IPO. These positives are balanced by gold AISC of USD 1,866 per ounce, substantial project-execution requirements and uncertainty over the timing and valuation outcome of the IPO. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$29.00 Mean target$52.29 High · most bullish analyst$63.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $29.0024% Annual gold production falls below 2.9 million ounces, gold AISC exceeds USD 1,950 per ounce, or the North American IPO is delayed beyond 2026. Weaker commodity prices, project slippage or renewed operating disruptions would reduce cash generation and undermine the expected portfolio-rerating catalyst. Base CaseCentral scenario $52.2956% Matches the consensus meanBarrick delivers production and costs within its unchanged 2026 ranges, advances Lumwana and Fourmile broadly on schedule, and completes or substantially advances the North American IPO. Strong commodity prices support cash generation, but elevated unit costs and execution risk limit the appropriate recommendation to Hold. Bull CaseUpside scenario $63.0020% Gold and copper prices remain supportive, annual production reaches the upper half of guidance, and costs remain within guidance. The North American IPO completes by year-end 2026 and achieves a favorable valuation, while the expanded Nevada Gold Mines portfolio and Fourmile development improve the market's assessment of Barrick's long-duration North American assets. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |