Barclays plc ADR Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryDiversified Banks Beta (adjusted)1.00 Intrinsic Value $16.31median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $24.27Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 33% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $81.3B Shares Outstanding 3.3B diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend7 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Barclays entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: H1 Group RoTE was 14.8%, above the greater-than-12% FY2026 objective, and management raised FY2026 Group income guidance to approximately GBP 31.5 billion. Capital remained around the top of the 13%-14% management range before the announced buyback, while the longer-term plan targets Group RoTE above 14% in 2028 and more than GBP 15 billion of distributions during 2026-2028. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$27.10 Mean target$30.27 High · most bullish analyst$33.50 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $27.1020% Credit costs move beyond the 50-60 basis-point through-the-cycle range, Group RoTE fails to exceed 12%, or CET1 falls below 13%, reducing distribution flexibility and weakening confidence in delivery of the greater-than-14% 2028 return target. Base CaseCentral scenario $30.2755% Matches the consensus meanOperating momentum moderates after a strong first half, but Barclays still exceeds its greater-than-12% FY2026 RoTE objective, maintains CET1 within the 13%-14% range and remains on its multi-year return and distribution path. Bull CaseUpside scenario $33.5025% Barclays sustains RoTE comfortably above 12% in 2026, progresses toward the greater-than-14% 2028 target, delivers approximately GBP 31.5 billion of FY2026 income and preserves sufficient CET1 capital to execute more than GBP 15 billion of planned 2026-2028 distributions. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |