Bar Harbor Bankshares Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Bar Harbor Bankshares Inc

BHBNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryRegional Banks

Beta (adjusted)0.74

Intrinsic Value $27.98median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $38.69Price as of 30 Sep 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 28% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $648.7M

Enterprise Value $679.9M

Shares Outstanding 17.4M diluted

Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend20 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Bar Harbor Bankshares (BHB) operates as a solid regional community bank across Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont. While the bank maintains a strong core deposit franchise and has a long history of consistent dividend increases, near-term profitability is under pressure. The Q1 2026 earnings missed analyst expectations due to rising funding costs and deposit competition, alongside a notable increase in nonaccrual loans. However, the bank's active 5% share buyback program and attractive dividend yield provide downside support, making it a stable hold for income-focused investors.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets2 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$38.00

Mean target$39.50

High · most bullish analyst$41.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$34.0015%

Intense deposit competition forces higher funding costs, compressing margins further. Credit quality deteriorates significantly, particularly in commercial real estate, leading to higher provisions and lower earnings.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$37.5060%

The bank navigates a challenging interest rate environment with stable loan growth and manageable credit trends. Net interest margin remains relatively stable, and the bank continues its steady dividend growth and share repurchases.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$41.0025%

Net interest margins expand faster than expected due to successful deposit cost management and asset repricing. Integration of recent acquisitions yields higher-than-anticipated cost synergies, driving EPS above consensus.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong regional footprint with over 50 branches in Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont.
Consistent dividend growth history with a healthy yield of approximately 4.19% as of Q1 2026.
Active capital return program, including a newly authorized 5% share buyback plan.

Key Investment Risks

Rising funding costs and intense competition for deposits compressing net interest margins.
Deterioration in credit quality, as evidenced by the rise in nonaccrual loans to $23.1 million in Q1 2026.
Geographic concentration in Northern New England, making the bank sensitive to regional economic downturns.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Net interest margin compressing below 3.0%.
Nonaccrual loans exceeding $30 million, indicating systemic credit underwriting issues.
Suspension or reduction of the quarterly dividend or share buyback program.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.