Banner Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Banner Corp

BANRNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryBanks - Regional

Beta (adjusted)0.89

Intrinsic Value $64.04median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $67.00Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 4% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $2.5B

Enterprise Value $2B

Shares Outstanding 34.1M diluted

Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend4 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Banner Corporation (NASDAQ: BANR) continues to demonstrate operational resilience, characterized by a robust core deposit base (89% of total deposits) and strong net interest margins (4.11% in Q1 2026). However, its growth outlook remains constrained over the medium term due to a heavy reliance on cyclical commercial real estate (CRE) and construction lending, persistent CRE payoffs, and underdeveloped non-interest fee income (historically ~15.5% of revenue). The pending acquisition of Pacific Financial Corporation provides a modest regional scale expansion, but near-term upside is limited, making the stock a solid hold for income-focused investors seeking a stable dividend yield.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets6 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$73.00

Mean target$76.50

High · most bullish analyst$81.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$73.0015%

Sustained high interest rates accelerate core deposit migration to higher-yielding time deposits, compressing NIM below 3.80%. A macroeconomic slowdown in the Pacific Northwest leads to deteriorating credit quality, particularly within the highly concentrated CRE and construction portfolios, forcing higher provisions for credit losses and halting share buybacks.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$76.5060%

Matches the consensus mean

Banner successfully executes its 'super community bank' strategy, maintaining mid-single-digit loan growth in 2026 despite ongoing CRE payoffs. Net interest margin stabilizes around 3.90% to 4.10%, and the efficiency ratio gradually improves toward the 58% target through digital automation. The dividend remains well-supported by a conservative payout ratio of 35% to 40%.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$81.0025%

Accelerated integration of Pacific Financial Corporation drives higher-than-expected cost synergies and expands commercial lending hubs in Washington and Oregon. A stable or declining interest rate environment stimulates regional loan demand, particularly in the Pacific Northwest's tech and aerospace sectors, while core deposit costs decline faster than asset yields, expanding NIM beyond 4.15%.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong core deposit franchise with 89% of total deposits in low-cost relationship accounts, providing a resilient funding base.
Robust capital position with a tangible common equity ratio of 9.97% and a Tier 1 leverage ratio consistently above 10.5%, supporting organic growth and capital return.
Consistent history of returning capital to shareholders, highlighted by a recent 4% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.52 per share and active share repurchases.

Key Investment Risks

High concentration in cyclical commercial real estate (CRE) and construction lending, exposing the bank to regional economic downturns.
Underdeveloped non-interest fee income (representing only ~15.5% of total revenue), which increases earnings sensitivity to the interest rate cycle.
Intense competition for deposits from larger national banks and digital-only players, which could pressure funding costs and compress net interest margins.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A significant spike in non-performing assets (NPAs) or net charge-offs within the CRE portfolio exceeding historical averages.
Net Interest Margin (NIM) compressing below 3.75% due to aggressive deposit pricing competition.
Severe integration issues or material client attrition following the merger with Pacific Financial Corporation.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.