Bank OZK Dossier
|
SectorFinancials IndustryBanks - Regional Beta (adjusted)0.93 Intrinsic Value $123.31median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $45.96Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 168% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+168%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5B Enterprise Value $3.2B Shares Outstanding 109M diluted Next Earnings Date15 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend13 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Bank OZK operates as a highly disciplined regional compounding machine, driven by its core commercial real estate (CRE) lending franchise and a rapidly expanding Corporate and Institutional Banking (CIB) segment. Despite operating in a challenging macroeconomic and high-interest-rate environment, the bank consistently delivers industry-leading returns on equity (ROE) and robust net interest margins (NIM) that outperform peers. Backed by 29 consecutive years of dividend increases and a conservative underwriting culture, Bank OZK offers a compelling combination of growth, income, and credit resilience. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$40.00 Mean target$54.67 High · most bullish analyst$65.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Elevated interest rates and a downturn in the commercial real estate cycle lead to negative credit migrations, rising non-performing loans, and higher provision for credit losses. Intense deposit competition forces higher funding costs, compressing NIM below 4.00% and dragging ROE below the 12.00% benchmark. Base CaseCentral scenario Bank OZK maintains stable profitability with an ROE of around 12.5% to 13.0% and a NIM of approximately 4.20%. Moderate loan growth in CRE and CIB offset slight pressures from deposit competition. The bank continues its long-term track record of steady dividend growth and selective share buybacks, trading at a modest discount relative to historical multiples due to broader regional banking sentiment. Bull CaseUpside scenario Strong Sunbelt regional expansion, robust loan and deposit growth, and successful scaling of the CIB segment drive record earnings. Net interest margins expand toward the upper end of management's guidance as deposit costs stabilize, while credit quality remains pristine with minimal charge-offs, prompting upward valuation multiple revisions toward historical averages. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |