Bank of the James Financial Group Inc Dossier
|
SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.46 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $26.83Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $121.9M Enterprise Value $1B Shares Outstanding 4.5M diluted Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend22 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Bank of the James Financial Group Inc (BOTJ) is a stable, community-focused bank holding company operating in Central Virginia. The company has demonstrated solid financial health, highlighted by a net interest margin expansion to 3.39% in 2025 and record annual earnings of $9.02 million. While the bank benefits from strong deposit discipline and a growing wealth management segment via Pettyjohn, Wood & White, Inc., its valuation is currently full. Trading at approximately 10.2x trailing earnings and 1.37x book value, the stock is fairly valued relative to regional peers. Given the potential headwinds from a continuing Federal Reserve rate-easing cycle, a 'Hold' recommendation is warranted as the bank transitions to a lower interest rate environment. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $19.5015% Rapid rate cuts by the Federal Reserve compress the net interest margin faster than deposit costs can be repriced. A localized economic slowdown in Virginia leads to a rise in commercial real estate defaults, forcing higher provisions for credit losses and hurting profitability. Base CaseCentral scenario $25.5065% The bank maintains stable net interest income by successfully managing deposit costs downward to offset declining loan yields. Wealth management fees from PWW continue to grow at a double-digit pace, providing a reliable noninterest income stream. Credit quality remains pristine with nonperforming loans staying below 0.30% of total loans. Bull CaseUpside scenario $28.5025% The bank achieves accelerated loan growth in high-yield commercial segments while deposit costs decline faster than expected due to aggressive rate cuts. Wealth management fees from PWW grow at a 15%+ rate, and mortgage originations rebound strongly, driving return on equity above 14%. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |