Bank Of Nova Scotia Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryDiversified Banks Beta (adjusted)1.08 Intrinsic Value $22.75median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Jan 2026 Market Price $90.84Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 75% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-75%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $110.7B Shares Outstanding 1.2B diluted Next Earnings Date2 Dec 2026 Last ex-dividend7 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Scotiabank entered the final quarter of fiscal 2026 with substantially improved operating momentum: Q3 was a record quarter, adjusted return on equity reached 14.2% and exceeded management's 14% objective, and every major business line reported year-over-year earnings growth. Canadian Banking delivered a fifth consecutive quarter of margin expansion, while Wealth Management and Global Banking and Markets produced record results. The counterweight is credit and capital sensitivity: the provision-for-credit-loss ratio was 56 basis points, gross impaired loans increased, and the CET1 ratio declined 20 basis points sequentially to 13.1% while the bank continued repurchases. A Hold recommendation is appropriate because execution is strong. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$75.27 Mean target$87.45 High · most bullish analyst$95.12 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $75.2719% Credit costs rise above the Q2 2026 level, impaired-loan measures worsen and CET1 falls below 13.1%, weakening the evidence that recent margin, fee-income and operating-leverage improvements can be sustained. Base CaseCentral scenario $87.4556% Matches the consensus meanOperating performance remains near the Q3 run rate, with return on equity around management's 14% objective, manageable credit costs and CET1 capital near its current level. Bull CaseUpside scenario $95.1225% Adjusted return on equity remains above 14%, positive operating leverage persists, credit costs remain at or below the Q3 level, and broad earnings contributions from Canadian Banking, Wealth Management, International Banking and Global Banking and Markets continue. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |