Bank Of New York Mellon Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Bank Of New York Mellon Corp

BKNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryAsset Management & Custody Banks

Beta (adjusted)1.03

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $144.63Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $98.1B

Shares Outstanding 678.5M diluted

Next Earnings Date15 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend27 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

BNY entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter revenue reached $5.7 billion, year-over-year growth was 13%, operating leverage was 606 basis points and ROTCE was 31.3%. Scale remained substantial at $62.6 trillion of assets under custody and/or administration and $2.2 trillion of assets under management, while the quarterly common dividend increased from $0.53 to $0.63. These fundamentals support a constructive operating view.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets15 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$135.00

Mean target$167.33

High · most bullish analyst$184.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$135.0018%

Revenue growth falls to zero or below as market conditions, activity levels or client flows weaken, while investment and compensation costs eliminate positive operating leverage. The resulting margin and ROTCE compression would undermine the current operating-momentum thesis.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$167.3357%

Matches the consensus mean

Revenue growth moderates from the second quarter's 13% rate but remains positive, expense growth remains below revenue growth and profitability stays above historical levels implied by the recent 31.3% ROTCE.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$184.0025%

Revenue continues to expand at or near the recent double-digit rate, operating leverage remains positive and ROTCE remains close to the second-quarter level. Continued client activity and supportive market levels sustain custody, administration and asset-management scale, while capital distributions add to shareholder returns.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 revenue increased 13% year over year to $5.7 billion, accompanied by 606 basis points of operating leverage and 31.3% ROTCE.
BNY reported $62.6 trillion of assets under custody and/or administration and $2.2 trillion of assets under management at June 30, 2026, and raised the quarterly common dividend to $0.63 from $0.53.

Key Investment Risks

The recent 606-basis-point operating-leverage result may not persist if revenue growth slows while investments, compensation and revenue-related expenses continue rising.
Custody, administration and asset-management scale can be adversely affected by weaker market valuations, lower transaction activity or client outflows, creating downside to fee revenue and profitability.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.