Bank of Marin Bancorp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.86 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $27.08Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $438.5M Enterprise Value $202.8M Shares Outstanding 15.9M diluted Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend7 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) has completed its extensive balance sheet repositioning, which involved selling low-yielding securities at a loss and cleaning up nonaccrual loans. While these actions severely pressured historical GAAP results, the bank's core operations are showing signs of stabilization. Net interest margin (NIM) expanded sequentially to start 2026, and deposit costs are beginning to stabilize. However, sluggish loan growth and a high-rate environment continue to act as headwinds. Trading near its tangible book value, the stock offers a balanced risk/reward profile, making it a Hold pending clearer evidence of sustained loan expansion and margin recovery toward management's long-term 4% NIM target. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$26.00 Mean target$29.20 High · most bullish analyst$31.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Worsening credit quality in the San Francisco Bay Area commercial real estate sector leads to elevated charge-offs and forces higher provisioning. Sluggish loan demand and intense deposit competition compress NIM, eroding profitability. Base CaseCentral scenario The bank successfully maintains its net interest margin expansion as higher-yielding assets replace maturing ones, while deposit costs remain stable. Loan growth remains modest but positive, and credit quality continues to improve with no major new nonperforming assets. Bull CaseUpside scenario The worst of the bank's balance sheet restructuring and portfolio clean-up is complete, having realized significant securities losses in 2025. Underlying fundamentals are improving, driven by strong deposit trends, declining deposit costs, and active balance sheet management that has expanded net interest margins (NIM) toward management's 4% target. Additionally, conservative underwriting, stabilizing credit quality, and strategic digital and branch upgrades in growth markets position the bank for steady earnings recovery and tangible book value expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |