Banco Macro SA ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Banco Macro SA ADR

BMANYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryBanks - Regional

Beta (adjusted)0.61

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $66.93Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $4.3B

Shares Outstanding 62.8M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date25 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend6 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Macro Bank Inc. (Banco Macro S.A.) is one of Argentina's leading private banks, demonstrating robust financial resilience, high capital adequacy, and strong profitability despite a volatile macroeconomic environment. The bank's strategic focus on operational efficiency, short USD positioning, and inorganic growth opportunities (such as the pending acquisition of Banco Sáenz S.A. and the integration of Banco Itaú Argentina) positions it well to capture credit demand recovery. With a Basel III capital adequacy ratio of 32.4% and an improving efficiency ratio of 32%, the bank is highly solvent and capable of navigating local economic shifts.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets9 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$79.74

Mean target$115.96

High · most bullish analyst$142.32

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$79.74

Persistent macroeconomic instability, high inflation, or severe peso depreciation leads to a contraction in real credit demand and rising non-performing loans. Cost of risk spikes past 6.0%, and NIM contracts significantly due to rising funding costs and regulatory constraints, dragging ROE below 5%.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$115.96

Matches the consensus mean

Argentina's economy undergoes a gradual recovery with inflation moderating toward the bank's 28% assumption. Nominal loan growth achieves the targeted 42% and deposit growth reaches 34%. The bank maintains its adjusted ROE guidance of 8% with potential upward revisions, supported by stable asset quality and a cost of risk peaking between 5.5% and 6.0%.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$142.32

Rapid macroeconomic stabilization in Argentina leads to a sharp decline in inflation and a surge in private sector credit demand. Successful integration of Banco Itaú Argentina and prompt regulatory approval of Banco Sáenz S.A. accelerate market share gains in Greater Buenos Aires. NIM remains elevated above 25% due to optimized funding costs, driving ROE above 15%.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Exceptional solvency with a 32.4% Capital Adequacy Ratio and ARS 4.0 trillion in excess capital as of Q1 2026.
Strong operational efficiency with the efficiency ratio improving to 32% in Q1 2026 from 38.7% in Q4 2025.
Strategic inorganic expansion through the completed acquisition of Banco Itaú Argentina and the pending acquisition of Banco Sáenz S.A.
Dominant regional footprint as a financial agent in 4 Argentine provinces, serving over 6 million customers.

Key Investment Risks

High exposure to Argentine macroeconomic volatility, inflation fluctuations, and sovereign risk.
Potential asset quality deterioration with cost of risk expected to peak between 5.5% and 6.0%.
Regulatory risks, including pending central bank approvals for acquisitions and potential changes in monetary policy.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A severe spike in inflation far exceeding the bank's 28% assumption, leading to negative real loan growth.
Rejection of the Banco Sáenz S.A. acquisition by the Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA).
A sustained drop in the Capital Adequacy Ratio below 20% or a spike in the Cost of Risk above 7%.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.