Banco de Chile ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Banco de Chile ADR

CHILESantiago Stock Exchange

SectorFinancials

IndustryBanks - Regional

Beta (adjusted)0.48

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $40.01Price as of 30 Sep 2026

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Market Cap $20.2B

Enterprise Value $6.8T

Shares Outstanding 505.1M diluted

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend30 Mar 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Banco de Chile entered the second half of 2026 with strong profitability, efficiency and regulatory capital, but the quality of that performance must be weighed against slower expected loan growth and a higher cost-of-risk outlook. Second-quarter earnings benefited materially from inflation-linked income, while management reduced its 2026 loan-growth expectation to approximately 6% and raised cost-of-risk guidance to 1.2%-1.3%. The ADR therefore offers exposure to a high-quality Chilean banking franchise, but its near-term risk-reward is balanced by credit normalization, Chilean macroeconomic sensitivity and CLP/USD translation risk.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets12 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$21.00

Mean target$39.55

High · most bullish analyst$47.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$21.0020%

Weak Chilean activity keeps loan growth below guidance, consumer delinquencies and provisioning push cost of risk above 1.3%, and lower inflation reduces inflation-indexed revenue. A weaker Chilean peso would compound the effect for ADR holders.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$39.5555%

Matches the consensus mean

Loan growth finishes near the revised approximately 6% outlook, full-year cost of risk remains within 1.2%-1.3%, and profitability normalizes from the inflation-assisted second quarter while capital remains sound.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$47.0025%

Loan demand accelerates toward management's medium-term expectations, inflation-linked income and fee growth remain supportive, efficiency stays near recent strong levels, and asset quality remains contained. Sustained capital strength and a favorable currency translation would support a higher ADR valuation.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong first-half profitability and efficiency demonstrate pricing, funding and operating discipline.
A 13.9% CET1 ratio and a 1.6% non-performing loan ratio provide meaningful resilience against a less favorable credit cycle.

Key Investment Risks

Management reduced its 2026 nominal loan-growth outlook to approximately 6%, indicating weaker-than-expected economic activity and credit demand.
Cost-of-risk guidance increased to 1.2%-1.3%, while ADR returns remain exposed to Chilean macroeconomic conditions and CLP/USD movements.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.