Ballys Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Ballys Corp

BALYNYSE

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryCasinos & Gaming

Beta (adjusted)2.33

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $13.72Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $692.4M

Enterprise Value $4.8B

Shares Outstanding 50.5M diluted

Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend5 Mar 2020

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Bally's Corporation (BALY) is undergoing a major structural transformation following its $4.6 billion buyout agreement and merger with The Queen Casino & Entertainment, completed in February 2025. While the transaction leaves Standard General with a 74% majority stake, the remaining public shares continue to trade on the NYSE. The company's investment profile is highly complex, characterized by elevated leverage, significant capital commitments for major development projects (such as the $1.7 billion permanent casino in Chicago), and strategic international expansion through its majority-owned subsidiary Bally's Intralot. Although top-line revenue growth remains supported by acquisitions and organic interactive gains, persistent bottom-line losses, construction delays (with the Chicago permanent casino opening pushed to Spring 2027), and underperformance at temporary venues warrant a cautious 'Hold' stance.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$8.00

Mean target$12.25

High · most bullish analyst$15.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$8.0020%

The bear case is triggered by further construction delays or cost overruns at the Chicago project, continued revenue underperformance at temporary venues, or failure to realize synergies from international interactive integrations. In this scenario, high leverage (TTM Net Debt/EBITDA over 16x) and negative free cash flow could lead to liquidity constraints or dilutive financing.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$12.2550%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes Bally's continues to progress on its major development pipeline, including the Chicago casino, while managing its heavy debt load. Revenue remains stable or grows moderately, but elevated capital expenditures and interest expenses keep near-term earnings and free cash flow under pressure, keeping the stock range-bound near current levels.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$15.0030%

The bull case relies on the successful, on-schedule completion of the permanent Chicago casino by Spring 2027, which is projected to be a major revenue driver. Additionally, rapid deleveraging through the integration of Bally's Intralot and the potential acquisition of evoke plc could unlock significant international interactive synergies, driving margin expansion and positive free cash flow.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong top-line revenue growth driven by strategic acquisitions, including the merger with The Queen Casino & Entertainment.
Significant long-term revenue potential from the $1.7 billion permanent Chicago casino resort, which reached its topping-out milestone in April 2026.
Expanded global footprint and interactive capabilities through majority ownership of Bally's Intralot S.A.

Key Investment Risks

Extremely high leverage profile with TTM Net Debt/EBITDA exceeding 16x, limiting financial flexibility.
Execution and timeline risks on major capital projects, highlighted by the Chicago casino opening being delayed from September 2026 to Spring 2027.
Persistent net losses and negative free cash flow driven by high interest expenses and heavy capital expenditure requirements.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Further delays in the permanent Chicago casino opening beyond Spring 2027.
Material deterioration in liquidity or failure to meet debt covenants.
Severe regulatory hurdles or failure to close key international transactions.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.