Ball Corp Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryMetal, Glass & Plastic Containers Beta (adjusted)0.97 Intrinsic Value $67.71median of 6 methods · middle span $65-$132based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $56.03Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 21% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $14.8B Enterprise Value $21.4B Shares Outstanding 261.8M diluted Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Ball entered the second half of 2026 with favorable shipment and comparable-EPS momentum and retained guidance for greater than USD 900 million of free cash flow and 10-plus-percent comparable diluted EPS growth. The counterweight is uneven regional execution: second-quarter North and Central America comparable operating earnings declined despite higher volume, while startup, operating and tariff-related costs remain visible. At the August 28 issuer-reported close of USD 63.77, the risk-reward appears balanced rather than compelling. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$63.00 Mean target$72.57 High · most bullish analyst$79.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $63.0020% Shipment growth stalls, North American cost pressure persists, and tariff or metal-pass-through timing reduces operating leverage. A free-cash-flow guidance miss would constrain capital returns and weaken confidence in the long-term EPS algorithm. Base CaseCentral scenario $72.5755% Matches the consensus meanBall delivers approximately its stated 2026 objectives, with volume growth and share repurchases supporting EPS while North American startup and operating costs limit upside. Bull CaseUpside scenario $79.0025% Sustained shipment growth, stronger operating leverage, effective aluminum-cost pass-through and continued strength in EMEA and South America allow Ball to exceed its EPS and cash-flow objectives. Successful execution of operational-excellence initiatives supports a higher valuation. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |