Bakkt Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryFinancial Exchanges & Data Beta (adjusted)1.00 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $7.81Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $352M Enterprise Value $325M Shares Outstanding 44.6M diluted Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Bakkt Holdings, Inc. (BKKT) has undergone a massive strategic transformation, culminating in the divestiture of its non-core loyalty business in late 2025 and the acquisition of Distributed Technologies Research (DTR) in April 2026. The company has successfully eliminated its long-term debt, leaving it with a clean, debt-free balance sheet and $82.6 million in cash as of Q1 2026. Bakkt's business model is now streamlined into three core growth engines: Bakkt Markets (stablecoin infrastructure), Bakkt Agent (programmable finance and agentic AI payments), and Bakkt Global (international expansion). The upcoming commercial launch of Bakkt Agent in June 2026 represents a major near-term catalyst that could drive high-margin, recurring SaaS-like revenue, positioning the company to achieve EBITDA breakeven and long-term profitability. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$19.00 Mean target$19.00 High · most bullish analyst$19.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $0.3020% Fierce competition in the digital asset infrastructure space and slower-than-expected partner onboarding for Bakkt Agent delay the path to profitability. A prolonged downturn in crypto trading volumes and stablecoin adoption limits transaction fees, forcing further capital raises. Base CaseCentral scenario $11.0150% Bakkt successfully executes its three-engine strategy. Bakkt Agent launches on schedule in June 2026 and begins onboarding partners, while Bakkt Markets steadily scales its stablecoin on/off-ramp services to reach its $2.5 billion TTV target by year-end. The company progresses toward EBITDA breakeven by late 2026/early 2027. Bull CaseUpside scenario $22.0030% Rapid institutional adoption of stablecoin infrastructure and a highly successful launch of Bakkt Agent drive transaction volumes well above expectations. Bakkt Markets achieves its $2.5 billion TTV target early, and international investments in India and Japan continue to yield massive mark-to-market gains, leading to rapid profitability. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |