Backblaze Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Backblaze Inc

BLZENASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryIT Consulting & Other Services

Beta (adjusted)1.39

Intrinsic Value $6.18median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $13.99Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 56% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (-56%)

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Market Cap $866M

Enterprise Value $872.4M

Shares Outstanding 61.4M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Backblaze is successfully transitioning from a legacy, commoditized computer backup provider into a high-growth, AI-driven Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) player. By targeting the high-performance neocloud data-lake layer, the company is capturing significant tailwinds from AI workloads, with AI customers growing 76% year-over-year in Q1 2026. The company's valuation remains highly attractive at approximately 3.4x ARR, while operating leverage is driving rapid margin expansion. With management raising full-year 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance and projecting positive adjusted free cash flow in the second half of 2026 without further equity dilution, Backblaze presents a compelling risk-reward profile.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets6 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$21.00

Mean target$22.83

High · most bullish analyst$25.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$4.5015%

Intense price competition from hyperscale cloud providers (AWS, Google Cloud, Azure) forces Backblaze to lower pricing, compressing gross margins. Legacy computer backup declines faster than expected, and high capital expenditures pulled forward into 2026 delay the transition to positive free cash flow.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$8.5055%

Backblaze delivers on its raised FY26 revenue guidance of $161.5M to $163.5M, supported by steady 20%+ growth in B2 Cloud Storage and stable unit economics. The company achieves positive adjusted free cash flow in H2 2026, and valuation multiples expand moderately as the market recognizes its transition to a self-funding IaaS model.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$11.0030%

AI-driven demand and neocloud partnerships accelerate B2 Cloud Storage growth beyond expectations, while the legacy backup business stabilizes. Rapid upmarket enterprise sales execution under the new CRO drives B2 NRR above 115%, leading to significant operating leverage and pushing adjusted EBITDA margins past 28% in 2026.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong secular tailwinds from AI workloads and multimodal data storage requirements, driving a 76% YoY increase in AI customers.
Improving financial profile with Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin expanding to 26% and a clear path to free cash flow positivity in H2 2026.
Attractive relative valuation trading at ~3.4x ARR, representing a steep discount to infrastructure software and storage peers.
Strengthened enterprise go-to-market execution under newly appointed Chief Revenue Officer Anuj Kumar.

Key Investment Risks

Fierce competition from hyperscale cloud giants with massive capital resources and aggressive pricing strategies.
Execution risk associated with moving upmarket and scaling enterprise sales contracts.
Potential drag from the legacy Computer Backup segment, which declined 2% YoY in Q1 2026.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

B2 Cloud Storage ARR growth decelerating below 15% year-over-year.
Failure to achieve positive adjusted free cash flow by the end of fiscal year 2026.
Significant customer churn in the high-value enterprise or neocloud cohorts.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.