AZZ Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustrySpecialty Business Services Beta (adjusted)1.08 Intrinsic Value $133.26median of 6 methods · middle span $104-$178based on filings through 31 May 2026 Market Price $134.39Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 1% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4B Enterprise Value $4.5B Shares Outstanding 30.2M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date8 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend9 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary AZZ Inc. has successfully transformed into a pure-play metal coatings and coil coating solutions provider in North America following the acquisition of Precoat Metals and the divestiture of its non-core infrastructure assets. The company is uniquely positioned to benefit from multi-year secular tailwinds, including generational U.S. infrastructure spending, manufacturing reshoring, and the structural migration toward pre-painted steel and aluminum. With record sales of $1.65 billion in FY2026, robust EBITDA margins of 22.3%, and aggressive debt reduction that lowered net leverage to 1.4x, AZZ exhibits a highly resilient, cash-generative business model. The combination of strong organic growth, disciplined capital allocation, and a clear path to achieving its FY2027 guidance supports a compelling investment case with attractive valuation upside. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$144.00 Mean target$164.00 High · most bullish analyst$200.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $132.0015% A prolonged macroeconomic downturn or high interest rate environment severely dampens commercial and residential construction activity, leading to volume contraction in Precoat Metals. Volatile raw material costs, particularly sharp increases in zinc and natural gas prices, compress Metal Coatings margins. Debt reduction stalls, and the company is forced to scale back capital expenditures and pause share repurchases. Base CaseCentral scenario $164.0060% Matches the consensus meanAZZ executes steadily on its reiterated FY2027 guidance, achieving sales of $1.725 billion to $1.775 billion and adjusted EPS of $6.50 to $7.00. Metal Coatings maintains strong margins of ~31% supported by steady infrastructure demand, while Precoat Metals stabilizes as residential markets gradually recover. Net leverage remains comfortably below 2.0x, allowing for selective bolt-on M&A and consistent dividend growth. Bull CaseUpside scenario $200.0025% Accelerated infrastructure spending under the federal IIJA and rapid expansion of data centers drive double-digit volume growth in the Metal Coatings segment. Precoat Metals benefits from a sharp cyclical recovery in residential construction and rapid conversion from post-paint to coil coating. Operating efficiencies and high capacity utilization push consolidated Adjusted EBITDA margins above 24%, enabling faster-than-expected debt retirement and aggressive share buybacks. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |