Axsome Therapeutics Inc Dossier
|
SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)0.83 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $184.39Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $9.7B Enterprise Value $9.5B Shares Outstanding 52.1M diluted Next Earnings Date6 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Axsome entered the second half of 2026 with strong AUVELITY momentum: second-quarter net product sales were $180.3 million, up 51% year over year, approximately 266,000 prescriptions were written, and payer coverage was approximately 89% of covered lives. The expanded Alzheimer’s disease agitation indication and a broad late-stage neuroscience pipeline create material upside, including the expected ENGAGE Phase 3 readout and the AXS-12 regulatory decision. However, commercial value remains concentrated in AUVELITY, while pipeline outcomes and the execution of newer launches remain important sources of downside. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$246.00 Mean target$285.42 High · most bullish analyst$380.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $246.0025% AUVELITY growth slows materially, the Alzheimer’s disease agitation launch underperforms, ENGAGE fails its primary endpoint, or AXS-12 encounters a complete response letter or material delay. Weak contribution from newer products would further increase dependence on the core AUVELITY franchise. Base CaseCentral scenario $285.4256% Matches the consensus meanAUVELITY continues growing but decelerates from its 51% second-quarter rate, the Alzheimer’s disease agitation launch expands the franchise gradually, and at least one major pipeline catalyst advances without materially changing near-term commercial economics. Bull CaseUpside scenario $380.0019% AUVELITY sustains rapid growth across major depressive disorder and Alzheimer’s disease agitation, the ENGAGE trial produces clearly positive results, AXS-12 receives approval, and the newly initiated SUMMIT program adds credible smoking-cessation option value. Successful execution across these programs would support a substantially higher valuation. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |