Axon Enterprise, Inc. Dossier - Source-backed chat

Axon Enterprise, Inc.

AXONNASDAQ

SectorIndustrials

IndustryAerospace & Defense

Beta (adjusted)1.26

Intrinsic Value $276.71median of 6 methods · middle span $182-$315based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $422.52Price as of 30 Sep 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 35% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $34.3B

Enterprise Value $35.5B

Shares Outstanding 83.1M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Axon's operating momentum remains exceptional: Q2 2026 was its tenth consecutive quarter of more than 30% revenue growth, annual recurring revenue reached $1.639 billion, net revenue retention reached 126%, and future contracted bookings reached $15.1 billion. Management raised 2026 revenue-growth guidance to 32%-34% while retaining a 25.5% adjusted EBITDA margin outlook. The integrated hardware, software, AI, 911, real-time operations and counter-drone ecosystem supports a long growth runway. Balance is warranted because Software & Services gross margin declined materially year over year, stock-based compensation remains substantial, cash conversion has lagged adjusted earnings, and the issuer-hosted quote of $600.73 already reflects significant expectations.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets19 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$409.68

Mean target$693.40

High · most bullish analyst$830.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$409.6817%

Revenue growth falls below 30% as large contracts normalize, public-sector deployments shift, or newer international and enterprise markets convert more slowly than expected. Software & Services gross-margin pressure persists, adjusted EBITDA margin falls below guidance, and substantial stock-based compensation and weak cash conversion reduce per-share value creation.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$693.4058%

Matches the consensus mean

Axon broadly delivers its 2026 outlook of 32%-34% revenue growth and a 25.5% adjusted EBITDA margin, supported by $15.1 billion of future contracted bookings and continued premium-software adoption. Growth moderates over time while professional-services and newer-product mix constrain gross-margin expansion.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$830.0025%

Premium software and AI adoption, Dedrone growth, Axon 911, Body Mini and expansion in international and enterprise markets sustain growth above management's current outlook. Continued cross-selling keeps net revenue retention elevated, while operating leverage and product maturation move profitability toward Axon's 2028 targets of approximately $6 billion in revenue and a 28% adjusted EBITDA margin.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Recurring-revenue momentum is strong: annual recurring revenue grew 39% year over year to $1.639 billion and net revenue retention reached 126%.
Future contracted bookings grew 41% to $15.1 billion, including two nine-figure agreements with major U.S. cities and Axon's first full-scope Axon 911 customer agreement.
Growth is broadening beyond core TASER and body-camera products: Q2 Software & Services revenue grew 36%, Platform Solutions grew 123%, and international and enterprise bookings each approximately tripled.

Key Investment Risks

Software & Services gross margin declined to 71.3% from 75.6% year over year, reflecting professional-services mix and the cost of scaling newer offerings.
Management expects $590 million-$620 million of 2026 stock-based compensation, including approximately $280 million associated with Employee XSP and the CEO Performance Award.
At June 30, 2026, Axon reported approximately $1.1 billion of net debt, while first-half operating cash flow and free cash flow remained negative amid inventory investment and customer billing and collection timing.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.