Avnet Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryElectronics & Computer Distribution Beta (adjusted)1.07 Intrinsic Value $53.00median of 5 methods · middle span $46-$155based on filings through 27 Jun 2026 Market Price $99.95Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 47% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $8.2B Enterprise Value $11.3B Shares Outstanding 83.4M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend3 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Avnet is demonstrating a solid cyclical recovery, highlighted by double-digit sequential and year-over-year sales growth in its latest quarter, driven by strong demand in Asia and the Farnell segment. The company has successfully optimized its working capital, bringing days of inventory down to 77 days (surpassing its near-term target of below 80 days). However, its trailing twelve-month net profit margin remains thin at 0.86%, and the stock's current trailing P/E multiple of over 35x reflects a high valuation relative to historical averages and direct peers like Arrow Electronics. While structural tailwinds from AI, data centers, and industrial electrification support long-term growth, near-term valuation risks and weak interest coverage justify a Hold recommendation until margin expansion consistently translates into higher net earnings. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$80.00 Mean target$106.25 High · most bullish analyst$120.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The recovery in the EMEA region stalls, and Asian growth tilts heavily toward lower-margin high-volume products, compressing gross margins below 10%. High interest expenses continue to pressure net margins, and inventory levels rise again due to sudden supplier disruptions or demand corrections in core industrial and automotive end markets, limiting free cash flow generation. Base CaseCentral scenario The cyclical recovery in global semiconductor and electronic component demand continues steadily. Memory pricing remains supportive, and the European market continues its gradual recovery, driving group adjusted operating margins toward the 3.5% to 4.0% range. Avnet achieves its Q4 fiscal 2026 guidance of $7.3 billion to $7.6 billion in sales and diluted EPS of $1.70 to $1.80, leading to full-year fiscal 2026 EPS of approximately $5.12. Share repurchases resume once leverage targets are met. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |