Avista Corp Dossier
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SectorUtilities IndustryUtilities - Diversified Beta (adjusted)0.51 Intrinsic Value $39.19median of 5 methods · middle span $36-$48based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $35.09Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 12% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.9B Enterprise Value $3.1B Shares Outstanding 83.2M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend18 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Avista Corp (AVA) is a stable regulated electric and gas utility operating in the Pacific Northwest. The company offers a solid dividend profile with a long history of consecutive increases, supported by robust regulatory outcomes and a clear capital spending plan of $3.4 billion from 2026 to 2030. However, near-term growth is pressured by the departure of a large industrial customer, wildfire exposure risks, and a recent pause in negotiations with a major 500 MW data center developer to review energy request processes. These factors warrant a cautious Hold stance as the company navigates regulatory rate cases and balances its clean energy transition goals. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$37.00 Mean target$41.33 High · most bullish analyst$50.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Severe wildfire events lead to significant liability exposure or unrecoverable operational costs. Regulatory lag worsens, or rate case decisions in key jurisdictions are less favorable than expected. The pause in data center negotiations becomes permanent, limiting long-term rate base growth and causing the stock to trade at a steeper discount relative to peers. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully executes its $3.4 billion capital plan for 2026-2030, driving a 7% rate-base CAGR. Regulatory rate cases in Washington and Idaho progress smoothly, offsetting the $0.12 EPS headwind from the departure of a large industrial customer. Wildfire mitigation efforts keep operational risks manageable, and the company achieves its affirmed 2026 non-GAAP utility EPS guidance of $2.52 to $2.72. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |