Avidbank Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.56 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $30.98Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $340.3M Enterprise Value $257.4M Shares Outstanding 11.8M diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Avidbank Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: AVBH) represents a compelling growth opportunity in the regional banking sector, driven by its specialized niche in Silicon Valley commercial, venture, and asset-based lending. Following a successful balance sheet restructuring in 2025, the bank has demonstrated a powerful rebound in profitability, characterized by significant net interest margin (NIM) expansion to 4.38% and a highly efficient cost structure with an efficiency ratio of 50.35% as of Q1 2026. With strong capital ratios, active share repurchases, and a clear path toward low double-digit loan growth, the bank is well-positioned to outperform peers despite broader macroeconomic headwinds. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$34.00 Mean target$36.25 High · most bullish analyst$38.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Persistent inflation and high interest rates lead to severe deposit cost pressures, compressing NIM below 4.00%. A downturn in the technology sector triggers elevated defaults in the venture lending and SaaS portfolios, causing net charge-offs to spike and forcing higher provisions that depress net income. Base CaseCentral scenario The bank successfully executes its 10–15% loan growth target for 2026, supported by expansion in venture lending and asset-based lending. NIM remains stable above 4.20% as deposit costs stabilize, and credit quality remains manageable with net charge-offs staying below historical averages. Profitability remains robust with ROAA above 1.30%. Bull CaseUpside scenario Avidbank has demonstrated consistent organic balance sheet expansion, with a track record of 15% compound annual growth since 2018 across assets, loans, and deposits. The bank's strong capital position, highlighted by a Tier 1 leverage ratio of 11.50% and a total risk-based capital ratio of 12.79% as of Q2 2026, provides ample capacity for organic growth, strategic talent recruitment, and expansion into new business lines like its newly launched SBA lending division. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |