Avery Dennison Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Avery Dennison Corp

AVYNYSE

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryPackaging & Containers

Beta (adjusted)0.87

Intrinsic Value $177.37median of 6 methods · middle span $170-$320based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $170.67Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 4% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $12.9B

Enterprise Value $15.9B

Shares Outstanding 76.1M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date20 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend2 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Avery Dennison entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter organic sales grew 7.6%, adjusted EPS increased 19.4%, adjusted operating margin expanded to 13.6%, and year-to-date adjusted free cash flow reached $469.8 million. Materials Group produced the strongest growth, while Solutions Group delivered substantial margin expansion despite modest organic growth. Management maintained a constructive FY2026 adjusted-EPS range of $10.00-$10.30. A Hold recommendation therefore balances strong execution against macroeconomic, tariff, raw-material, currency.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets10 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$181.00

Mean target$201.80

High · most bullish analyst$225.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$181.0020%

Adjusted EPS falls below guidance as weaker global demand, tariffs, geopolitical disruption, raw-material pressure, adverse currency movements, or acquisition-integration challenges outweigh productivity and pricing actions.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$201.8055%

Matches the consensus mean

Avery Dennison delivers adjusted EPS within its $10.00-$10.30 FY2026 guidance range, with continued growth and productivity supporting margins while demand normalizes from the strong second quarter.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$225.0025%

Avery Dennison exceeds the upper end of its FY2026 adjusted-EPS guidance as Materials Group sustains strong organic growth, Solutions Group preserves its improved margins, and productivity plus pricing continue to offset cost pressure.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong second-quarter execution: net sales increased 10.9%, organic sales increased 7.6%, and adjusted diluted EPS increased 19.4%.
Improving profitability: total adjusted operating margin reached 13.6%, while Solutions Group adjusted operating margin expanded 150 basis points to 11.5%.
Strong cash generation and shareholder returns: year-to-date adjusted free cash flow was $469.8 million, and first-half dividends plus repurchases totaled $347 million.

Key Investment Risks

Underlying demand is exposed to global economic conditions, tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty, and changing environmental standards and customer preferences.
Raw-material availability and costs could pressure profitability if productivity measures and pricing do not offset inflation without meaningful volume loss.
Foreign-exchange volatility and the execution and integration of acquisitions could reduce reported growth, earnings, or expected strategic benefits.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.