Avalonbay Communities Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Residential Beta (adjusted)0.84 Intrinsic Value $181.50median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $184.06Price as of 14 Aug 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 1% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $26.3B Enterprise Value $35.2B Shares Outstanding 141.3M diluted Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Hold is used as a schema-compatible neutral designation rather than a conventional rating on a tradable AvalonBay security. AvalonBay's merger with Equity Residential closed on August 17, 2026, each outstanding AvalonBay share converted into the right to receive 2.793 shares of the combined company, and the successor began trading as Vivmark Residential. AvalonBay subsequently filed to terminate or suspend its Exchange Act registration and reporting duties. Investors therefore cannot initiate or value a standalone AvalonBay position; continuing economic exposure must be assessed through Vivmark Residential. That successor begins with substantial scale, more than 184,000 apartment homes, approximately $4.4 billion in active development, and an upgraded A issuer credit rating, but integration, development execution and realization of merger benefits remain material uncertainties. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$189.00 Mean target$201.28 High · most bullish analyst$221.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $189.0015% The successor's integration proves more difficult or costly than expected, anticipated operating benefits are delayed, or development execution and market conditions weaken returns received through the converted Vivmark shares. Base CaseCentral scenario $201.2870% Matches the consensus meanAvalonBay remains a non-reporting, non-standalone entity following completion of the merger, and any continuing shareholder return is realized through the 2.793-for-one conversion into Vivmark Residential shares. Bull CaseUpside scenario $221.0015% Former AvalonBay holders benefit through their converted Vivmark Residential shares if the successor uses its larger operating platform, active development pipeline and stronger credit profile to compound value. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |